Tom Ashworth

Goals follow shots. Shots follow systems. Bet the system.

Tom bets one thing: how many goals a match will have, and who scores them. Over and under 2.5, both teams to score, team totals, first-half goals. He does not bet match winners and he does not care who lifts the trophy.

His process starts with shot data, not scorelines. A team that wins 1-0 while conceding 20 shots is a team that will concede soon, whatever the table says. He builds an expected-goals number for both sides, adjusts for the line-ups and the referee's penalty record, then compares it with the bookmaker's line. If there is no gap, there is no tip.

He treats a matchday like a stock screen: dozens of matches checked, three or four bets made.

Markets Tom bets

How Tom finds an edge

Start with shots, not scores

Scorelines lie over four or five games. Shot volume and shot quality do not. I take each side's expected goals for and against over the last ten league games, weight recent games more heavily, and split home and away. That gives a baseline goals figure for the match.

Adjust for who actually plays

A missing striker or a rotated back four moves the number. So does a new manager who changes the press. I re-run the figure once the line-ups are confirmed and only publish the tip if the edge survives.

Compare with the line

Every match total has an implied probability. If my baseline says 2.9 goals and the market is priced as if it expects 2.4, the over is a bet. If my number is 2.5 and the line is 2.5, I pass, however tempting the fixture looks.

The referee and the weather matter

A referee who gives penalties adds goals. Heavy rain and wind take them away. Both go into the number before I look at a price.