Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Internazionale Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth checks the shot and goals data from Feyenoord's shaky European defence and Internazionale's misfiring away form before pricing the goals market at De Kuip.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two leaky defences in the Champions League league phase
Internazionale arrive at De Kuip as outright favourites, and on Serie A form alone that is no surprise: Inter sit top of Serie A with 25 points from nine games (8-1-0), the division's best attacking and defensive numbers combined. Move the lens to the Champions League league phase, though, and the picture changes. Inter have three points from three games (1-0-2), including a 4-3 defeat away at Club Brugge in which they shipped four goals despite scoring three themselves.
Feyenoord are in an almost identical spot in the same table - the same 3-point return from three league-phase games (1-0-2) - a 3-2 home win over Como and a 0-1 defeat away at Real Betis. Domestically they have not kept a clean sheet in any match since a 2-0 win over AZ Alkmaar on 10 October: a 1-1 draw at PSV, a 4-3 home win over Telstar and that 0-1 loss at Betis have followed. Across their last five matches in all competitions they have scored 10 and conceded 7.
Inter's own run tells a similar story in reverse: four wins and a defeat in their last five across all competitions, 11 goals scored, 6 conceded, including that four-goal concession at Brugge. Both sides are still finding Europe harder going than their domestic form suggests, and neither has looked capable of shutting a game down completely in recent weeks.
We could not confirm either manager's starting eleven for this one at the time of writing, so the stake is kept modest. With two leaky-at-the-back sides and goals flowing in both of their recent European matches, the pick is over 3.5 goals at 2.00.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Internazionale Serie A position1st, 25 pts from 9 games (8-1-0)
- Internazionale Champions League league phase3 pts from 3 (1-0-2)
- Feyenoord Champions League league phase3 pts from 3 (1-0-2)
- Feyenoord goals for/against, last 5 all competitions10 for, 7 against
- Internazionale goals for/against, last 5 all competitions11 for, 6 against
Team news
We have not found confirmed starting line-ups for either side this far from kick-off. Both sides have rotated for midweek European nights this season, which adds uncertainty to a stake already kept at 0.75 units.
Inter have been far tighter domestically (conceding only a handful in nine Serie A games) than in Europe, and a return to that control - or Feyenoord parking the bus at home in a game they could realistically lose - would see this line missed comfortably.
Verdict
At 2.00, over 3.5 goals implies a 50% chance of five or more goals. Four of Feyenoord and Internazionale's combined six most recent European league-phase matches had four or more goals, and both attacks have scored in every one of their last five matches in all competitions. The case rests on leaky defences rather than firepower alone, so the stake reflects that this is a European away night rather than a certainty.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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