Poland vs Romania Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth checks both sides' defensive numbers from the opening two rounds of Group B4 before pricing up Warsaw.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Group B4's leaky defences
Poland and Romania both arrive in Warsaw at the wrong end of Group B4 after two rounds. Romania are bottom with zero points from two defeats; Poland are third with a single point from a 3-1 defeat at Sweden and a 0-0 draw with Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Romania's defensive numbers are the headline here. They have conceded six goals in their two Nations League games - two in a 2-1 loss to Sweden, four in a 4-2 defeat to Bosnia-Herzegovina - and both of those matches produced goals at both ends for Romania, who also scored in each of them (one and two respectively).
Poland have been tighter at the back, shipping three only once (the loss at Sweden) and keeping a clean sheet in their other game, a 0-0 draw in which neither side scored. Across the four games played inside this group so far, three finished with both teams scoring - the exception being the one match Poland were involved in where nobody did.
Poland's own goal return is thin: one goal in two games. That is the main risk to this selection - if they go another match without scoring, Romania's leaky defence doesn't matter. At 1.80, both teams to score implies a 55.6% chance against a 75% hit rate across the four games already played by these exact four sides this campaign. Both teams to score, 1.80, 1 unit, confidence 4/5.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Group B4 games with BTTS so far3 of 4
- Romania goals conceded, 2 NL games6
- Romania goals scored, 2 NL games3
- Poland goals scored, 2 NL games1
- Poland goals conceded, 2 NL games3
Team news
We found no confirmed team news or injury list for either squad as of 1 Oct, and have not seen the starting line-ups. No specific absence is priced into this tip.
Poland have scored only once in two Nations League games; if their finishing drought continues the bet can lose even with Romania conceding again. Stake held at 1 unit rather than Tom's 2-unit maximum for that reason.
Verdict
At 1.80, both teams to score carries an implied probability of 55.6%. Three of the four games already played inside Group B4 this campaign have finished with both teams scoring, including both of Romania's own games - that's a real gap on the price, with the caveat that Poland's own scoring touch is unproven.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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