Türkiye vs Belgium Prediction and Tips: Goals

Belgium's attack against a leaky Türkiye defence

Türkiye go into this Group A1 return fixture bottom of the table without a point: four defeats, two goals scored, eleven conceded. Belgium have had a mixed campaign of their own, losing three of four, but they are the form side of this pair with wins over Italy and Türkiye and goals in three of their last four outings.

The sides already met once this campaign, Belgium winning 3-0 in Brussels on 2 October. Taken together, their seven unique matches since late September have produced match totals of 1, 5, 3, 4, 2, 1 and 5 goals — a 3.0-goal average, skewed by a couple of one-sided games either way rather than a settled pattern. Neither defence has been tight: Türkiye have shipped 11 in four games, Belgium 5, including a 4-1 defeat to France.

Türkiye have nothing left to play for in this group and could easily sit deep and make the game scrappy, which is the main way this misses. But on the balance of the numbers — a leaky Türkiye defence and a Belgium side that generally finds the net — we're backing over 2.5 goals at 1.52, for 0.75 units.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Türkiye goals scored, last 4 Nations League games2 (0.5 per game)
• Türkiye goals conceded, last 4 games11 (2.75 per game)
• Belgium goals scored, last 4 games6 (1.5 per game)
• Belgium goals conceded, last 4 games5 (1.25 per game)
• Combined average across 7 unique matches since September3.0 goals per game
• First meeting, 2 October, BrusselsBelgium 3-0 Türkiye

Team news

We have not been able to confirm either side's starting line-up this far from kick-off. Both teams are already out of contention for the group's top two places, which carries some risk of rotation, particularly from Türkiye.

Verdict

Over 2.5 goals at 1.52 implies a 65.8% chance. That is roughly in line with the pattern here: these two sides have combined for 3.0 goals a game on average since September, even though Türkiye's own attack has gone missing (two goals in four games). The stake is 0.75 units rather than our usual 1, because the edge is modest rather than a clear mismatch, and leaning on Türkiye's leaky defence rather than their own scoring is not the most reliable kind of goals trend.