Italy vs France Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth weighs up Italy and France's scoring and conceding patterns through the Nations League group phase ahead of their second meeting of the campaign at San Siro.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓A tight group phase and two sides who keep finding the net
Italy and France go into their penultimate Nations League group game already having met once this campaign – a 1-1 draw in Paris on 2 October. That result is the starting point for this rematch at San Siro.
Italy's four Nations League group games have produced a 0-2 home loss to Belgium, a 4-1 win away at Türkiye, the 1-1 draw at France, and a 3-1 home win over Türkiye. They have scored in three of the four and, more relevant here, conceded in all four – 5 goals let in across the four games.
France's record in the same four fixtures is 1-0 away at Türkiye, 1-0 away at Belgium, the 1-1 draw with Italy, and a 4-1 home win over Belgium. They have scored in every one of their four group games, though they kept clean sheets in the two away wins over Türkiye and Belgium.
We could not find any confirmed team news for either side this far out – both squads assemble in the days before the game – so this is built on the group-phase pattern rather than any specific injury or line-up edge, which is why the stake sits below a full unit.
Italy's leaky defence against a France side that has found the net in every group game points the same way as last month's head to head. Both teams to score, 1.56.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Italy goals scored, last 4 Nations League8
- Italy goals conceded, last 4 Nations League5 (conceded in every game)
- France goals scored, last 4 Nations League7 (scored in every game)
- France clean sheets, last 4 Nations League2 of 4
- Last meeting (2 Oct, Paris)1-1, both scored
Team news
No confirmed team news for either side yet, five days out – both squads are still assembling. This tip is built on the Nations League group-phase pattern rather than a specific line-up edge.
France have twice kept good opposition scoreless this campaign (away at Türkiye and Belgium), and a cagey, low-event night at San Siro can't be ruled out if one side goes ahead early and manages the game.
Verdict
At 1.56, both teams to score implies a 64.1% chance. Italy have conceded in all four of their Nations League games, and France have scored in all four, including the 1-1 draw when these two sides last met. That overlap is the bet, not a prediction that this will be a classic.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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