Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at two leaky defences in the bottom half, and why the goals market hasn't caught up with how open this fixture is likely to be.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two bottom-half sides who keep conceding
Crystal Palace and Newcastle United arrive in the bottom half of the table for different reasons, but both have been conceding goals in bunches. Palace have lost 1-4 at home to Manchester City and 0-5 away at Brighton in their last five league games, either side of a 3-1 home win over Nottingham Forest and a 3-2 away win at Fulham; their five-game sequence reads 5, 5, 2, 4 and 5 total goals. Newcastle's last five have produced 4, 5, 3, 5 and 1 total goals, including a 4-1 home defeat to Leeds and a 4-1 away defeat at Coventry City among their losses.
Neither side has kept a clean sheet recently - Palace have conceded in every one of their last five league games, and Newcastle have shipped at least one goal in four of their last five - while both have also found the net in the majority of those matches. That combination, two teams who concede freely and still manage to score themselves, is the shape of fixture that tends to go well past the standard 2.5 total.
We have not seen confirmed starting line-ups for either side this far from kick-off, so there is some uncertainty over who starts up front and in defence for both. Based on the pattern across their last ten combined league matches, though, four or more goals has been closer to the rule than the exception recently.
At 2.55, the market prices over 3.5 goals at an implied 39.2% chance. Both sides' recent scoring and conceding rates put the real number above that, and with no clear favourite in a muddled mid-table match-up, the total is where the clearer edge sits. Tom's pick: over 3.5 goals.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Total goals in Palace's last 5 league games5, 5, 2, 4, 5
- Total goals in Newcastle's last 5 league games4, 5, 3, 5, 1
- Combined average per game, recent run~4.4
- Over 3.5 goals - best price2.55
Team news
No confirmed starting line-ups or injury news for either club this far out. We'll update if anything changes before kick-off.
Both sides have had one noticeably tight game in their last five - Palace drew 0-0 away at Leeds, and Newcastle lost 0-1 at home to Aston Villa - so a cagey, low-scoring match is not impossible here. A change to either side's back four through injury could tighten things up rather than open them further, and we have not been able to confirm line-ups this far out.
Verdict
Four of Palace's last five league games and four of Newcastle's last five have finished with four or more total goals, and neither side has the kind of settled defence that argues for a repeat of their one tight result. At 2.55, over 3.5 goals pays well above what that recent scoring and conceding pattern suggests it should.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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