Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction and Tips: Goals

Leverkusen's scoring runs against Stuttgart's wobble

Bayer Leverkusen sit fourth in the Bundesliga on 13 points from seven games, a point outside the Champions League places, while Stuttgart have slipped to 15th on just six points after five defeats in their last seven league outings.

The underlying scoring pattern matters more here than the table. Over Leverkusen's last six Bundesliga matches they have scored at least twice in five of them: 4-0 at home to Union Berlin, 2-0 at home to RB Leipzig, 4-3 away at Mainz, 2-1 at home to Freiburg, and only blanked once, in the 3-0 defeat at Hoffenheim. That is 14 goals in six games, 2.33 a match, with the defence also leaking 1.5 a game in the same spell — Leverkusen have been involved in goals at both ends rather than grinding out tight 1-0s.

Stuttgart's attack has gone quiet at the same time. They have scored more than once in only two of their last six league games (4-1 at home to Cologne and 2-0 away at Paderborn) and have been held to one goal or fewer in the other four, including back-to-back 0-1 defeats at Dortmund and Hamburg. Across their last six they have conceded 1.33 a game, which is tidy enough defensively, but they go into this one having lost four of their last five and short of confidence at the top end of the pitch.

We could not find a confirmed team-news line for either side ahead of kick-off — Leverkusen have had a Europa League trip and a cup tie since their last league match, so there is some rotation risk, but a weakened XI at home to a struggling Stuttgart back line should still find a way to goals.

At 1.38, the market is pricing Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 goals as roughly a 72% shot. They have hit that mark in five of their last six Bundesliga outings, which is the stronger side of that price — the pick is Bayer Leverkusen to score two or more at the BayArena.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Bayer Leverkusen goals scored, last 6 Bundesliga games14 (2.33 per game)
• Leverkusen games with 2+ goals, last 6 Bundesliga games5 of 6
• Leverkusen goals conceded, last 6 Bundesliga games9 (1.50 per game)
• VfB Stuttgart goals scored, last 6 Bundesliga games8 (1.33 per game)
• Stuttgart record, last 6 Bundesliga games1W-0D-5L

Team news

We could not find a confirmed team-news or injury line for either side this close to kick-off. Leverkusen have played a cup tie and a Europa League match since their last Bundesliga outing, so some rotation at the BayArena is possible.

Verdict

With Leverkusen scoring twice or more in five of their last six league games and Stuttgart winning only once in six, the goals should mostly come from the home side. Over 1.5 Leverkusen goals at 1.38 is the pick.