Como vs Manchester United Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at two sides who keep leaking goals at the other end as Como host a toiling Manchester United in the Champions League.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two defences short of their best
Como's last five matches across all competitions have been boom or bust: 4-1, 2-1, 0-2, 0-0 and 2-3, an average of three goals a game but with a 0-0 against Roma sitting right in the middle of it. Their Champions League record so far is one win and one defeat, with six goals scored and four conceded across those two games.
Manchester United's season has mostly gone the other way: one win, three draws and two defeats from six Premier League games, with nine goals scored and nine conceded, close to a goal and a half in each direction, but their matches have mostly stayed tight rather than loose. Four of their last five games in all competitions finished with two goals or fewer in total; only a 2-3 defeat at Brighton broke the pattern.
Putting a baseline on it: Como's scoring rate (1.6 goals a game) against United's shipping rate (1.6 conceded a game) points to around 1.6 goals for the hosts; United's own scoring (0.8 a game) against Como's conceding rate (1.4) points to a little over one for United. That is a combined baseline of roughly 2.7 goals - only a little above the market's 2.5 line, and both teams have had spells of containing games this month, which is why the stake here is a cut unit rather than a full one. The pick is over 2.5 goals.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Total goals, Como's last 5 games (all comps)5, 3, 2, 0, 5
- Total goals, Man Utd's last 5 games (all comps)1, 5, 2, 2, 2
- Man Utd Premier League record this season1W 3D 2L from 6 games
- Combined expected-goals baseline for this match~2.7
Team news
No line-ups are confirmed five days out. Manchester United have had a heavily disrupted season generally, but specific injury news for this fixture has not been confirmed, so treat the team news as unconfirmed on both sides.
Four of Manchester United's last five games in all competitions finished with two goals or fewer, which cuts against this pick - the baseline here only clears the line by a little, which is why the stake is cut to half a unit rather than the usual one.
Verdict
At 1.65, over 2.5 goals implies a 60.6% chance. Como have the shot data to produce big-scoring games - they have hit three or more goals in two of their last three - but Manchester United's matches have mostly stayed low-scoring this season, four of their last five finishing at two goals or under. A simple for-and-against baseline puts this match at around 2.7 expected goals, just the right side of the line, which is enough to take at a reduced stake: the pick is over 2.5 goals.
- Como fixtures and results, ESPN — recent match stats
- Manchester United fixtures and results, ESPN — recent match stats
- ESPN: Feyenoord v Como match stats
- ESPN: Atlético Madrid v Manchester United match stats
- Unibet UK, via the Kambi odds feed — total goals market
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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