Luxembourg vs Estonia Prediction and Tips: Goals

Bottom of Group C4 against its tightest defence

Luxembourg are bottom of UEFA Nations League Group C4 with 3 points from four games and the worst goal difference in the section (2 scored, 7 conceded). Estonia are second with 6 points, unbeaten in three draws and a win, and have the tightest defence in the group: one goal conceded in four matches. The sides met in Tallinn on 3 October, where Estonia won 1-0.

The headline numbers point two different ways — Luxembourg concede for fun, Estonia barely concede at all — but both point to a low-scoring match once the attacks are added in. Luxembourg have scored only twice in four games, both against Bulgaria; Estonia have managed just two goals themselves. Three of this pairing's combined eight group games this cycle finished with a single goal or none.

No confirmed team news was available for either side. With Luxembourg's attack as blunt as their defence is leaky, and Estonia's own forward line short of goals too, the realistic expectation is a repeat of October's low-scoring game: Under 2.5 goals at 1.58.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Luxembourg points (Group C4, 4 games)3 (1W 0D 3L)
• Estonia points (Group C4, 4 games)6 (1W 3D 0L)
• Estonia goals conceded1 in 4 games
• Luxembourg goals scored2 in 4 games
• First leg, 3 OctEstonia 1-0 Luxembourg

Team news

No confirmed starting line-up or injury list was available for either side three days out from kick-off. This tip is built on this Nations League cycle's results rather than team news.

Verdict

Under 2.5 goals at 1.58 implies a 63.3% chance. Three of Luxembourg's four Group C4 games and three of Estonia's four finished with two goals or fewer; the exceptions were Luxembourg's matches against the section's two strongest attacks, Iceland and Bulgaria, neither of which applies here. The first leg in Tallinn was a 1-0.