Slovenia vs Switzerland Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth checks Switzerland's unbeaten scoring run, Slovenia's own goal involvement and the market's price for this Group B1 finale in Maribor.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Switzerland's attack against Slovenia's goal involvement
Switzerland arrive at Ljudski vrt with a perfect Group B1 record: four wins out of four, eleven goals scored and only one conceded. They have beaten Scotland 3-0, North Macedonia 3-0 twice, and won the first meeting with Slovenia 2-1 away back on 3 October. Every one of those four games produced at least two Switzerland goals.
Slovenia are a tier below that level but are far from blunt. Second in the group on seven points, they have scored five and conceded three in four games — the 2-0 win away at North Macedonia and the 2-1 win at Scotland both came with goals at both ends, and the one blank was a 0-0 at home to a defensively solid Scotland side, not against an attacking line like Switzerland's.
Put the two scoring rates together and this match looks set up for goals: Switzerland's near-three-a-game attack against a Slovenia defence that has already conceded three in four outings, with Slovenia's own front line good for a goal when they're pressed into an open game, which Switzerland's approach tends to produce. The first meeting between these two produced three goals; of the eight Group B1 games played so far this cycle, five have had three or more.
At 2.10, the market prices Over 2.5 goals at an implied 47.6%. Given Switzerland's scoring floor and Slovenia's own goal involvement, that looks a shade too generous — the pick is Over 2.5 goals.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Switzerland goals scored, Group B1 (4 games)11
- Switzerland goals conceded, Group B1 (4 games)1
- Slovenia goals scored, Group B1 (4 games)5
- Slovenia goals conceded, Group B1 (4 games)3
- First meeting this cycle (3 Oct, Switzerland home)Switzerland 2-1 Slovenia
- Matches with 3+ goals, Group B1 this cycle (8 played)5 of 8
Team news
We could not confirm either side's starting line-up this far out — both squads are still assembling for the November window, two days before kick-off. Nothing in the official channels we checked pointed to a key absence for either side, but any late team-news reports should carry more weight than this preview.
Switzerland have conceded only once in four Group B1 games, and a quick lead can see them sit on it and manage the game rather than keep pushing — Slovenia were shut out once already this cycle (0-0 at home to Scotland). If Switzerland go ahead early and ease off, the total can go under. We also have no confirmed line-ups two days out.
Verdict
Switzerland have scored in every game this Nations League cycle and head to Maribor as comfortably the best attack in the group. Slovenia have problems of their own at the back, and have been involved in goals at both ends in three of their four games. Over 2.5 goals at 2.10 is the pick, at 0.75 units.
- ESPN — Nations League Group B1 standings — records, goals for/against
- ESPN — Switzerland 2-1 Slovenia match report (3 Oct 2026) — first-leg result
- Kambi/Unibet UK odds feed — match odds, checked 10 Nov
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
More predictions
Andorra vs Gibraltar
Moldova vs Kazakhstan
