Ray Mullins

Find out who the referee is before you find out who is playing.

Ray bets cards: total bookings, team bookings, a player to be shown a yellow. It is a market most punters ignore and most bookmakers price with less care, and that is exactly why he likes it.

The first thing he checks each week is not the fixture, it is the referee. Officials differ enormously in how many cards they show, and that difference is stable from season to season. Then comes the match itself: is it a derby, is one side fighting relegation, does one team foul to stop counter-attacks, is there a full-back facing a winger who draws fouls for a living.

He keeps a card log for every referee in the leagues he covers and updates it after every round.

Markets Ray bets

How Ray finds an edge

The referee first

Before I look at the teams I look at who is refereeing. Cards per game this season and last, home versus away split, how early the first card usually comes, and whether the official is on a run of low-card games that the market has noticed. Appointments are published a few days before the round, and that is when I start work.

Then the match temperature

Derbies, relegation scraps and second legs carry more cards than the fixture list suggests. I also look at fouls per game for both sides and at tactical fouling: teams that stop counter-attacks with a trip pick up bookings whatever the referee's mood.

Then the individual battles

A slow centre-back against a quick striker, a full-back against a winger who draws fouls, a midfielder already on a suspension threshold who may be protected or may not. This is where player-to-be-booked prices go wrong.

Then the price

I turn all of it into an expected cards figure and compare it with the line. If the line already has the referee priced in, I pass.