Hannah Weir
Anytime scorer, shots on target, assists, player props
A player who does not start cannot score. Check the team sheet first.
Hannah bets player markets: anytime goalscorer, shots on target, assists, and the newer props such as fouls drawn or tackles. These are markets where bookmakers price hundreds of players a week, and where the prices are often built from season totals that hide who is actually taking the shots right now.
Her work starts with minutes. A player who is not on the pitch cannot score, so the first check is whether he starts, whether he plays 90 minutes, and whether he is on penalties and free-kicks. Then comes volume: shots per 90, shots on target per 90, touches in the box, and how those numbers change against the opponent's type of defence.
She is happiest with shots-on-target lines, where a player's volume is far more stable than his goals.
Markets Hannah bets
| Market | Example | Typical odds |
|---|---|---|
| Anytime goalscorer | Haaland to score anytime | 1.50-4.00 |
| Shots on target over/under | Saka over 1.5 shots on target | 1.70-2.20 |
| Shots over/under | Bruno Fernandes over 2.5 shots | 1.70-2.10 |
| Assist | Trent Alexander-Arnold to assist | 3.00-5.00 |
| Player props | Rodri over 2.5 tackles | 1.70-2.10 |
How Hannah finds an edge
Minutes first
A prop is worthless if the player is rested, substituted at 60 minutes or moved to a role that takes him away from goal. I check the expected XI, the player's recent minutes, and whether a bigger game is coming that might see him rotated.
Volume, not goals
Goals are noisy; shots are not. A striker with 3.5 shots per 90 and 1.4 on target is a scorer whether or not he found the net last week. I use shots, shots on target, touches in the box and expected goals per 90 over the last ten starts, and I check who takes penalties and direct free-kicks.
The match-up
A winger who cuts inside to shoot does more against a full-back who gives space. A striker does more against a high line. I look at what the opponent concedes to each position, not just how many goals it lets in.
Then the price
Prop prices are built by algorithm from season averages. When a player's role has changed recently, the price is often wrong, and that is the bet.