Leeds United vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction and Tips: Players
Hannah Weir checks the minutes and the shot volume behind Tottenham's front line before pricing a player market.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Shot volume against a leaking Leeds defence
Leeds United have scored two and conceded five in their last five league games (D-L-D-D-L), with their only goal coming in a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester United. They have not kept a clean sheet of their own since September, and the defence has been breached in four of those five matches.
Tottenham arrive in good form - L-D-W-W-W across their last five, 10 goals scored, 5 conceded. Checking the ESPN boxscore data for their two most recent starts with a reliable team sheet (one earlier match had to be set aside - the roster data returned for it did not look right and has not been used), Omar Marmoush has five shots and three shots on target, and scored in one of the two. That is a decent volume for a forward getting regular minutes in a side that has scored ten in five.
Team news this far out is unconfirmed - Tottenham's starting eleven for Saturday is not yet known, and Marmoush's recent run of starts, while promising, is not a guarantee he plays. That uncertainty is the reason to cut the stake here rather than skip the bet: the market prices him to score anytime at 3.00, inside the usual range for this market, and fair value against a Leeds defence that has conceded regularly. The pick, at reduced stake, is Omar Marmoush to score anytime.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Leeds goals last 5 PL games2 scored, 5 conceded
- Tottenham goals last 5 PL games10 scored, 5 conceded
- Marmoush shots on target (last 2 reliable starts)3 from 5 shots, 1 goal
- Over 1.5 total goals (match odds)1.29
Team news
No confirmed starting line-up is available six days out for either side. This tip assumes Marmoush starts, based on his recent run of appearances; if he is rested or named on the bench, the bet has no basis.
Player-appearance risk is real this far from kick-off - Marmoush's place in Tottenham's XI is not certain, and one match in his recent sample returned team-sheet data from ESPN that looked unreliable and was excluded, leaving a small two-game sample to work from. Stake is cut to 0.5 units for exactly this reason.
Verdict
At 3.00, the market prices Omar Marmoush's anytime-scorer chance at roughly 31% before overround. His shot volume in his last two reliable starts - five shots, three on target, one goal - supports a real chance, and Leeds have conceded in four of their last five games. Appearance risk this far from kick-off is real, so stake is cut to 0.5 units on Omar Marmoush to score anytime.
- ESPN - Leeds United schedule and results - recent form
- ESPN - Tottenham Hotspur schedule and results - recent form
- ESPN - Tottenham vs Coventry City match summary - Marmoush boxscore stats
- ESPN - Chelsea vs Tottenham match summary - Marmoush boxscore stats
Bets players, not teams: anytime scorer, shots on target, assists and other props. Works from minutes, shot volume and set-piece duties, and passes on any player who is not a confirmed starter.
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