Portugal vs Denmark Prediction and Tips: Player Props

Gonçalo Ramos's shot volume in his last two starts

Portugal have wrapped up top spot in Group A4 with four wins from four, and across those games one player has done a disproportionate share of the shooting: Gonçalo Ramos. In Portugal's two most recent Group A4 starts - the 4-2 win away at Denmark on 1 October and the 2-1 win at home to Norway on 4 October - Ramos started both, took eight shots between the two games and put four of them on target, scoring in each.

That is a rate of two shots on target per game across his last two appearances, as the nominal starting centre-forward in a Portugal side averaging 2.25 goals a game in this group. Denmark have conceded in three of their four Group A4 games, including the four they shipped to this same Portugal attack in October, so there is no obvious reason to expect Ramos is shut out here.

The caveat is the sample size: two starts, and we could not confirm Portugal's final eleven for Saturday this far out, nor whether Ramos is carrying any knock from recent club football. Portugal have already secured the group, which brings a small rotation risk, but Ramos has started and scored in both of his most recent Group A4 appearances, which is a stronger signal than a single-match blip.

Backing Gonçalo Ramos for over 1.5 shots on target matches both his recent output and Denmark's record of letting sides create against them.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Ramos shots on target, 1 Oct vs Denmark2
• Ramos shots on target, 4 Oct vs Norway2
• Ramos goals in those two games2
• Ramos total shots in those two games8
• Denmark games conceding 2+ goals this campaign2 of 4
• Portugal goals scored this campaign (4 games)9

Team news

We found no reported injury news for Gonçalo Ramos or any Portugal forward this week, but neither side's starting eleven is confirmed this far from kick-off.

Verdict

Gonçalo Ramos for over 1.5 shots on target is priced at 2.06 by Kambi/Unibet UK, an implied 48.5% chance. He has had exactly two shots on target in each of his last two Group A4 starts, scoring both times, against a Denmark side that has conceded in three of four games this autumn. The two-game sample and the lack of confirmed team news this far out are why this is a 0.75-unit position rather than a full one.