Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty Prediction and Tips: Player Markets
Hannah Weir looks at who's getting the shots in Atalanta's front line, and whether Kairat Almaty's defence gives one of them a route to the prediction.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Atalanta's shot volume up front
Atalanta go into this one having lost their last two matches in all competitions — 2-0 away at Ajax Amsterdam in this competition, then 0-3 at home to Parma in Serie A — but the underlying picture up front, specifically around Nikola Krstovic, has been more encouraging than the results. In Atalanta's 4-4 draw at home to Frosinone on 25 October, Krstovic scored twice and added an assist from five shots. In the defeat to Parma on 2 November he didn't score, but still managed six shots, two of them on target — a workload that points to a player getting plenty of the ball in the right areas even when the team is losing.
The one recent match where his involvement dropped off was the away leg of this same competition at Ajax Amsterdam, where he was used only as a substitute. That's a genuine rotation flag, though it's also the toughest fixture of Atalanta's recent run — if anything, an easier home tie against a side sitting 31st in this 36-team league phase looks like the kind of match where he'd be restored to the XI rather than rested again, but we have no confirmed line-up to back that up.
Kairat Almaty's defensive numbers in this competition are the other half of the case: two league-phase games, six goals conceded, including a 1-5 defeat to Panathinaikos. Atalanta are priced as overwhelming favourites (1.18 to win, with Kairat Almaty out at 14.00), and a back line that's shipped six in two games against European opposition is exactly the kind of defence a confirmed, shot-heavy striker should get at least one goal past.
Nikola Krstovic to score anytime, 1.90, half a unit given the rotation risk around his last start in this competition.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Krstovic vs Frosinone (25 Oct)2 goals, 1 assist, 5 shots
- Krstovic vs Parma (2 Nov)0 goals, 6 shots, 2 on target
- Krstovic vs Ajax Amsterdam (22 Oct)Substitute appearance, 0 shots
- Kairat Almaty Conference League record0W-1D-1L, conceded 6 in 2 games
Team news
No confirmed Atalanta line-up yet. Krstovic started and scored twice in Atalanta's last home game (a 4-4 draw with Frosinone), then started again away at Fiorentina and in the home defeat to Parma on 2 November, taking 6 shots in that last outing without scoring. The one game he didn't start in recent weeks was the tougher away leg of this same competition at Ajax Amsterdam, where he came on only as a substitute. We have no confirmation of tonight's starting XI, so there is a real chance Atalanta rest him again for an easier home tie — stake and confidence are both cut to reflect that.
Krstovic was not a starter in Atalanta's last Conference League away game, so there's a genuine chance of rotation again here rather than a top-of-the-list starting certainty. Hannah's rule is a maximum of 1 unit on any player prop; this is backed at half that.
Verdict
Krstovic at 1.90 implies a 52.6% chance. His last two starts produced 11 shots and 2 goals between them against weaker opposition than he faced at Ajax, and Kairat Almaty have conceded 6 in 2 Conference League games. The one concern is confirming he starts at all — stake cut to reflect that he was benched for Atalanta's last away tie in this competition.
Bets players, not teams: anytime scorer, shots on target, assists and other props. Works from minutes, shot volume and set-piece duties, and passes on any player who is not a confirmed starter.
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