AC Milan vs Ferencvaros Prediction and Tips: Corners
Nadia Ferreira looks at how corner-heavy Ferencvaros' recent matches have been on the road, against a Milan side whose own corner counts have been lower.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Ferencvaros' corner counts on the road
AC Milan have won corners at a modest rate lately - 3, 2, 4, 4 and 2 in their last five matches, an average of 3.0 a game for Milan themselves - and their matches overall have averaged 8.4 corners combined, with the extremes coming against stronger Serie A sides (11 combined against Internazionale) rather than lesser continental opposition.
Ferencvaros tell a different story: 7, 7, 3, 9 and 5 corners won in their last five, and their matches have averaged 12.0 corners combined over that spell, including 14 in a 4-1 win over Torreense and 13 in a 4-0 win over Trabzonspor. A side that is comfortably the better team in a fixture tends to win a lot of corners attacking a deep block, and Ferencvaros have been exactly that kind of side domestically and in Europe recently.
We could not confirm Ferencvaros' starting wide players this far from kick-off, which is the one checklist item we are missing, so the stake below is cut rather than left at the usual level.
Blending Milan's lower combined average with Ferencvaros' much busier one points to a total in double figures. At odds of 2.08, the market prices over 9.5 corners at a 48.1% implied chance, which is below our estimate, so over 9.5 corners is the pick, at a reduced stake of 0.75 units.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Milan corners won, last 53,2,4,4,2 (avg 3.0)
- Milan match corner totals, last 514,5,9,10,4 (avg 8.4)
- Ferencvaros corners won, last 57,7,3,9,5 (avg 6.2)
- Ferencvaros match corner totals, last 511,10,14,13,12 (avg 12.0)
Team news
No confirmed line-ups were available two days out, and in particular we could not confirm whether Ferencvaros' usual wide players start. That missing checklist item is why the stake is cut rather than left at the normal level.
Corner counts are noisy game to game, and if Milan dominate possession and territory themselves rather than facing a deep Ferencvaros block, the corner count could sit closer to Milan's own quieter recent average.
Verdict
Over 9.5 corners at 2.08 implies a 48.1% chance. Ferencvaros' recent matches have run well above this line on the road, which is enough of an edge to back it, at a cut stake given the unconfirmed line-up.
- ESPN match centre: AC Milan vs Ferencvaros - fixture details
- ESPN AC Milan schedule - used with match summaries for corner counts (wonCorners)
- ESPN Ferencvaros schedule - used with match summaries for corner counts (wonCorners)
Bets corners only. Reads matches through width, pressure and blocked shots: teams that attack down the flanks and pin opponents back win corners regardless of the score.
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