Internazionale vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at Internazionale's defensive numbers and Shakhtar Donetsk's recent scoring form ahead of their Champions League meeting at San Siro.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Inter's leaky defence against a Shakhtar side that is scoring
Internazionale go into this as heavy favourites on the coupon — Kambi has them at 1.22 to win outright — but the scoreline column tells only half the story. My process starts with what a side actually concedes, not what the table says about them.
Inter have shipped at least one goal in four of their last six matches across all competitions: 2 at Real Madrid, 3 at home to Udinese (in a 5-3 win), 2 at AS Roma, and 4 at home to Club Brugge in their last Champions League outing. The two clean sheets in that run came against Lumezzane and Parma — domestic opposition well below Champions League level. Against the better sides they have faced recently, goals have gone in at both ends.
Shakhtar Donetsk arrive with form that does not match their position in the bookmaker's eyes. They have scored in each of their last three matches — 1 at PSV Eindhoven, 3 against Kryvbas, and 3 against AEK Athens in their last Champions League game — and actually sit above Inter in the league-phase table on goal difference, 4-2 from two games against Inter's 4-6.
We have not been able to confirm either side's starting line-up this far out — four days before kick-off — so this is built on team-level data rather than individual absences.
At San Siro, Inter should still have enough to win this, but their defence has not been doing them any favours lately and Shakhtar have the attacking form to find the net. Both teams to score at 1.76 is the bet, for 1 unit.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Inter Champions League record0W 0D 2L, GF4 GA6
- Shakhtar Champions League record1W 1D 0L, GF4 GA2
- Inter goals conceded, last 6 games (all comps)2, 3, 2, 0, 0, 4
- Shakhtar goals scored, last 3 games (all comps)1, 3, 3
- Both Teams To Score price (Kambi)Yes 1.76 / No 2.02
- Full-time match odds (Kambi)Inter 1.22 / Draw 6.75 / Shakhtar 12.00
Team news
We could not confirm either side's starting line-up this far out (four days before kick-off) — this tip is built on team-level form and results data, not individual fitness or team news.
The obvious risk is Inter simply controlling the game and shutting Shakhtar out, the way they did against Lumezzane and Parma — but those were weaker opponents than a Shakhtar side that has scored in three straight. A 2-0 or 3-0 Inter win would lose this bet.
Verdict
Both teams to score at 1.76 implies a 56.8% chance. Inter have conceded in four of their last six games and Shakhtar have scored in three straight — on the data, this looks closer to a coin-flip than the price suggests.
- ESPN — Internazionale results and schedule — recent match results across all competitions
- ESPN — Shakhtar Donetsk results and schedule
- ESPN — Champions League league-phase table
- Kambi/Unibet UK odds feed — match and both-teams-to-score odds
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
More predictions
Aston Villa vs Viking FK
Club Brugge vs Lens
