Ipswich Town vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth checks the shot data behind two sides who keep letting goals in at both ends.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two leaky defences, two goal-heavy runs
Ipswich Town have been involved in goals from both ends all season. Their last five league games - a 1-0 loss at Everton, a 2-1 win over Fulham, a 3-2 defeat to Manchester City, a 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest and a 2-2 draw with Hull City - have produced 15 goals in total: seven for Ipswich, eight against. They have scored in four of those five and conceded in all five; only the Everton game finished under 2.5 goals.
AFC Bournemouth's underlying games have been goal-heavy too, even though their recent results look tighter. The form reads L-L-W-W-W: a 5-1 defeat at Chelsea, a narrow 0-1 loss at Liverpool, then three straight wins with three clean sheets (2-0 over Sunderland, 3-0 at Manchester United, 2-0 over Leeds). Eight scored, six conceded across the five - and they have found the net in four of those five games, the Chelsea match alone accounting for six of the fourteen goals in the sample.
The market prices Over 2.5 goals at 1.66 (Under at 2.20), with the match close to a pick'em at 3.80 Ipswich, 3.80 the draw and 1.91 Bournemouth, and both teams to score priced at 1.57 - the market's own numbers point the same way. Ipswich have conceded in every one of their last five games and Bournemouth have scored in four of their last five; that combination, more than any expectation Bournemouth's defence keeps leaking too, is the case for Over 2.5 goals.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Ipswich goals last 5 PL games7 scored, 8 conceded
- Bournemouth goals last 5 PL games8 scored, 6 conceded
- Both teams to score (match odds)1.57
- Ipswich season record14 scored, 18 conceded in 9 games
Team news
No confirmed line-ups six days out for either side. No injury or suspension news has been published that would change this view.
Bournemouth have kept three clean sheets in their last three games, which cuts against backing goals if that defensive solidity travels. The case here rests more on Ipswich's leaky defence (conceded in every one of their last five) and an open, end-to-end match than on Bournemouth continuing to leak at their earlier rate.
Verdict
At 1.66, Over 2.5 goals implies roughly a 57% chance before the overround. Both sides have been part of goal-heavy games this season - Ipswich conceding in every one of their last five, Bournemouth scoring in four of theirs - and the market's own Both Teams To Score price (1.57) agrees. One unit on Over 2.5 goals.
- ESPN - Premier League standings - league positions and points
- ESPN - Ipswich Town schedule and results - recent form
- ESPN - AFC Bournemouth schedule and results - recent form
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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