Crystal Palace vs Liverpool Prediction and Tips: Result

Palace's home collapse against Liverpool's away record

Crystal Palace are bottom-half fixtures turned horror show at Selhurst Park this season. They sit 18th in the table with 7 points from nine games, and the alarm is in the shot count as much as the table: three goals scored and ten conceded in their last five league matches, including a 5-0 home defeat to Brighton and a 2-0 home loss to Newcastle. Their only points in that run came from a draw at Leeds and a 1-0 away win at Fulham; at home specifically it is one draw and one defeat, no win.

Liverpool arrive mid-table by their own recent standards, but the underlying picture is steadier than fifth place suggests. Their last five league games went W-L-W-W-L: a 3-0 win at Manchester City, home wins over Brentford and Brighton, a 1-0 home loss to Arsenal and a narrow defeat on the other side of a Chelsea draw. Five scored, five conceded across that run - an attack that has gone quiet but still found three at the Etihad three weeks ago, and a defence that is not leaking.

Prices before conclusions: the market has Liverpool at 1.57 to win, the draw at 4.40 and Palace at 5.30, which strips out to roughly a 62% implied chance for the away side once the overround is removed. That looks fair rather than generous set against Palace's home numbers this season. The pick is Liverpool to win.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Crystal Palace league position18th, 7 pts from 9 games
• Liverpool league position5th, 15 pts from 9 games
• Crystal Palace goals last 5 PL games3 scored, 10 conceded
• Liverpool goals last 5 PL games5 scored, 5 conceded

Team news

Team news is six days out and nothing is confirmed from either camp. No injury or suspension list has been published for either side; this tip is built on recent form and underlying numbers rather than personnel.

Verdict

At 1.57, the market prices Liverpool's win chance at roughly 62% once the overround is stripped out. Crystal Palace's home numbers this season - three goals scored and ten conceded in their last five league games - support that being closer to the floor than the ceiling of Liverpool's true chance. One unit on Liverpool to win.