Internazionale vs Parma Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth checks Internazionale's shot numbers from three home wins and Parma's record on the road before this Serie A fixture at San Siro.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Internazionale's shot volume against Parma's away record
Internazionale have played five Serie A games this season and sit second with 13 points from four wins and a draw, scoring 15 and conceding eight. The shot numbers behind those results are the more interesting figure for a goals market: in their three home league games so far they have had 27, 29 and 13 shots, with 12, 8 and 5 on target, and have scored four, three and five goals in them respectively.
Parma are 15th with four points from one win, one draw and three defeats, and their away form has been the weak point. At Juventus they had four shots all game and lost 2-0; at Como they managed 12 shots but conceded 28 at the other end in a 2-1 defeat. Across their last two away league games they have scored once and allowed 21 and 28 shots against them.
Both sides were off through the October international window, so there is no fresh midweek fixture congestion to weigh for either team, and no line-up has been confirmed this far out — this is built on the shot and goals data from the last round of league games before the break. We also did not have a wind or rain forecast for Milan at kick-off this far ahead, so that part of the usual checklist is unweighted this time.
Internazionale have scored at least three goals in two of their last three home league games and have put up heavy shot counts in all three. Parma's away defence has not held up to anything like that volume this season. The price of 1.58 for Internazionale to score over 2.5 goals looks the cleaner way into this one.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Internazionale league position2nd, 13 pts from 5 games
- Internazionale shots in last 3 home league games27, 29, 13
- Internazionale shots on target in last 3 home league games12, 8, 5
- Internazionale goals in those 3 home games4, 3, 5
- Parma league position15th, 4 pts from 5 games
- Parma shots conceded in last 2 away league games21, 28
- Parma goals scored in last 2 away league games0, 1
Team news
We could not confirm either side's starting line-up this far from kick-off. Internazionale have had a near-settled XI through their unbeaten run and Parma have no reported fresh injury news at the time of writing, but both are worth checking again closer to kick-off.
Parma scored late consolation goals in two of their last three away defeats and are capable of making a game of it for spells; an early Internazionale goal that kills the urgency to keep attacking would also work against the over.
Verdict
1.58 for Internazionale to score over 2.5 goals implies a 63.3% chance. Internazionale have beaten that line in two of their last three home league games on the shot numbers above, and Parma's away defence has not controlled anything like that volume this season. The edge looks real but not overwhelming, hence one unit rather than a bigger stake.
- ESPN Serie A standings — league positions and points
- ESPN match summary, Internazionale 5-3 Udinese — shots and shots on target
- ESPN match summary, Internazionale 3-2 Napoli — shots and shots on target
- ESPN match summary, Internazionale 4-1 Monza — shots and shots on target
- ESPN match summary, Parma 0-2 at Juventus — shots conceded away
- ESPN match summary, Parma 1-2 at Como — shots conceded away
- Kambi/Unibet UK odds feed — match prices
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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