Croatia vs Czechia Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at Croatia's leaky back line, Czechia's winless campaign, and what Group A3's live relegation fight means for the goals market.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two bottom-of-the-group defences collide in Osijek
Group A3 was decided at the top weeks ago — Spain are through with a perfect 5-0-0 and England banked second place long ago. What's left is a straight fight for who finishes bottom of the section, and on current goal difference, that's Czechia.
Czechia have lost all five games in this campaign, scoring twice and conceding 12. Croatia have one win from five and have shipped 16, the joint-heaviest defensive record in the group, including a 7-0 home defeat to England on 3 October and a 2-1 loss away to England last Thursday. The two sides have already met once this campaign — Croatia won 2-1 away in Czechia back in September — so neither back line is unfamiliar with the other's problems.
Both attacks are modest: Croatia average almost exactly a goal a game, Czechia well under half of one. That hasn't stopped goals arriving around these two sides, though: every one of Croatia's five games this campaign has had three goals or more, and three of Czechia's five have too.
Kambi have the match at 1.71 for over 2.5 goals. With both sides needing something from this to avoid finishing bottom and both defences well short of confidence, the goals market looks a better route in than trying to pick a winner between two teams with one win between them. Over 2.5 goals at 1.71.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Czechia record this campaign0W 0D 5L
- Croatia record this campaign1W 0D 4L
- Czechia goals conceded12 in 5 games
- Croatia goals conceded16 in 5 games
- Games with 3+ goals (Croatia)5 of 5
- Games with 3+ goals (Czechia)3 of 5
Team news
No confirmed injury or suspension news for either squad as of Saturday evening; both sides have used heavy rotation through this window, so treat the line-ups as provisional until they're out.
A stalemate between two sides with little left to play for could easily be the one low-event dead rubber of the window, denying the over.
Verdict
Over 2.5 goals at 1.71 implies a 58.5% chance of at least three goals. Every Croatia game and three of Czechia's five have beaten that mark already this campaign, which is enough of a gap to prefer the goals market over a straight bet between two sides so short on confidence.
- ESPN scoreboard - fixture and kick-off confirmation
- ESPN Nations League standings - Group A3 table
- ESPN match summary - venue and squad data
- Kambi/Unibet odds feed - live match odds
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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