LASK Linz vs Slovan Bratislava Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at Slovan Bratislava's leaking Champions League defence and LASK Linz's own goalscoring record in Europe this season.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓LASK's attack and Slovan's leaking defence
LASK Linz have had an eventful return to continental football: a 3-6 defeat to Liverpool at home that will not please them defensively, and a battling 3-2 win away at Sporting CP that showed the attack can function against better opposition. Across their three Champions League league-phase matches to date LASK have scored 6 and conceded 9 (ESPN standings), with goals flowing at both ends.
Slovan Bratislava have had a much harder time of it: three defeats, 1 goal scored and 13 conceded, including a 1-6 loss away at Paris Saint-Germain and a 0-4 loss away at AS Roma. Even at home they shipped three to VfB Stuttgart without reply. Their underlying defensive numbers in this competition are among the weakest of any side still involved.
Put the two trends together: LASK have scored in both of their Champions League matches so far and Slovan have conceded in all three of theirs, at a rate of well over four goals a game combined between the two sides' matches. We could not find any team news changing that picture, and with both sides' starting line-ups unconfirmed this far out we have not adjusted for injuries - this is built on the season's underlying pattern, not the teamsheet.
Tom's number for this one sits comfortably above the bookmaker's total, which is why the pick is over 3.5 goals at 1.97.
Form guide
Key numbers
- LASK CL goals scored (3 games)6
- LASK CL goals conceded (3 games)9
- Slovan CL goals scored (3 games)1
- Slovan CL goals conceded (3 games)13
- Combined CL goals per game (both teams' matches)4.8
Team news
No confirmed starting line-up for either side at the time of writing, this far from kick-off. This tip is built on the season's underlying goal trends rather than the team sheet; if either side rests key attacking players the total could come down.
Both sides have shown they can play a tighter game when it suits them, and a LASK side already facing a tough group-phase position could ease off once a tie is decided. The bet is on the pattern holding, not a certainty.
Verdict
Over 3.5 goals at 1.97 implies a 50.8% chance. LASK have scored in both Champions League outings so far and Slovan have conceded in all three; between them their league-phase matches have produced 4.8 goals a game on average. That is enough for a one-unit bet.
- ESPN - Champions League standings - goals for/against this league phase
- ESPN - LASK Linz schedule and results
- ESPN - Slovan Bratislava schedule and results
- Kambi/Unibet UK - match odds
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
More predictions
Barcelona vs Aston Villa
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich
