AC Milan vs Benfica: over 2.5 goals at 1.67
Benfica have scored 15 goals in their last five games and every one of them had at least three goals. Milan have conceded in three of their four league games. I want goals at San Siro.
The case for goals
Benfica are the form side here. They have won seven in a row in all competitions, and their last five read 3-1, 2-1, 3-0, 4-0 and 3-1. That is 15 goals scored, three conceded, and three or more goals in all five. Their Europa League qualifying run included a 6-1 against Hearts and a 5-0 against St. Gallen. This is a team that plays on the front foot.
Milan are unbeaten in Serie A but not tight. They beat Torino 2-1 and Venezia 2-0, then drew 1-1 with Juventus and 2-2 with Lazio on Saturday. Eleven goals in four league games, and only one clean sheet. San Siro on a European night, against a side that will not sit in, should open up.
The bookmakers have Milan only just favourites at 2.05 with BetMGM, which tells you they see two evenly matched sides. Evenly matched sides with this much going forward usually trade goals. At 1.67 the price is fair rather than generous, but I think it is the right side of the line.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Benfica's last 5 games with 3+ goals5 of 5
- Benfica winning run, all comps7 games
- Goals in Milan's 4 Serie A games11
- Milan clean sheets, Serie A (26/27)1 of 4
- Benfica wins v Milan in competitive meetings0 in 6
Team news
Sports Mole reports that Milan defenders Mattia Gabbia and Mario Gila have been cleared after minor injuries, while there is uncertainty over Luka Modric's availability.
Benfica are without right-back Alexander Bah, who has a shoulder injury; Daniel Banjaqui or Fredrik Aursnes is expected to cover.
Benfica have never beaten Milan in six competitive meetings, and their goals have come mostly against weaker Portuguese sides. Milan may treat a first European game back cautiously, and a cagey 1-1 kills this bet.
Verdict
At 1.67 the market gives over 2.5 goals an implied probability of 59.9%. I make it about 63%, driven by Benfica's scoring and Milan's leaky start. Small edge, standard stake: 1 unit.