Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Prediction and Tips: Goals

Brentford's home numbers against Forest's away record

Brentford's home form and Nottingham Forest's away form have been heading in different directions to the result, and that is exactly the kind of mismatch Tom Ashworth looks for in the goals market.

Brentford have won 2, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 14 and conceding 9. Over their last five league matches specifically they have scored 9 times (1.8 a game) and shipped 8 (1.6 a game), including a 3-0 win over Chelsea and a 2-3 defeat at Sunderland. At the Gtech Community Stadium their two most recent home games produced seven goals between them (3-0 against Chelsea, 1-2 against Liverpool).

Nottingham Forest sit 18th with 1 win, 3 draws and 4 losses from 8, but the shape of their results away from the City Ground is the interesting part. In their last three league away games they have scored 4 and conceded 5 - a 2-1 win at Aston Villa, a 1-3 defeat at Crystal Palace and a 1-1 draw at Ipswich Town, an average of 3 goals a game in matches they have actually played a part in, even though their home games in the same stretch (0-0 vs Spurs, 0-1 vs Coventry, 0-1 vs Arsenal) have been shut-out affairs. Four of their last six league matches in total have gone over 2.5 goals.

We did not have a dedicated expected-goals feed for this one and have worked from goals for/against rather than a shot-based xG number, so the edge here is moderate rather than certain; a cagey, backs-to-the-wall Forest performance transplanted to Brentford would cap it. Team news for both sides was not confirmed at the time of writing.

Putting Brentford's home scoring rate alongside Forest's leakier away record, the market's 2.5 line looks set below where the recent numbers point: the pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.75.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Brentford goals scored, last 5 league games9 (1.80/game)
• Brentford goals conceded, last 5 league games8 (1.60/game)
• Nottingham Forest goals scored, last 3 league away games4 (1.33/game)
• Nottingham Forest goals conceded, last 3 league away games5 (1.67/game)
• Brentford season record2W-5D-1L, 14 scored, 9 conceded in 8 games
• Nottingham Forest season record1W-3D-4L, 6 scored, 10 conceded in 8 games

Team news

We did not find a confirmed team news report for either side at the time of writing. Brentford have had a settled front line in recent weeks; Nottingham Forest's relegation fight means fringe changes are possible. Worth checking again as the team news is confirmed closer to kick-off.

Verdict

Brentford's home matches and Nottingham Forest's away matches have both been trending busier than their season-wide averages suggest, and the market's total goals line here looks set a touch under where the recent numbers point.