Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth weighs Borussia Dortmund's shot numbers against Bodo/Glimt's own attacking home matches as the two sides meet in the Champions League at Aspmyra Stadion.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Dortmund's scoring run against Bodo/Glimt's open home games
Borussia Dortmund go into this top of the Bundesliga on 13 points from five games (4W-1D-0L), having scored 11 and conceded 4. Bodo/Glimt arrive 2nd in the Eliteserien on 53 points from 22 games (17W-2D-3L) with a remarkable 56 goals for and 20 against — a genuinely good side, not makeweights, but one that plays at a very high tempo in both directions.
Dortmund's shot numbers back up their scoring run rather than just the scorelines: 13 shots (2 on target) in a 1-0 away win at Stuttgart, then 21 shots (9 on target) in a 2-2 home draw with Werder Bremen their last time out. They have scored in every one of their last five competitive matches and hit two or more goals in three of the last four, home and away.
Bodo/Glimt's own shot volumes at home are even bigger: 28 shots (10 on target) in a 3-2 win over Sandefjord, then 25 shots (8 on target) in a 3-1 win over Kristiansund BK most recently. They attack in numbers at Aspmyra, which is exactly the kind of game that tends to go both ways — their only fixture so far against a side of comparable European quality to Dortmund was a 0-5 defeat away at Bayern Munich in the Champions League opener, where they were cut open repeatedly. This will also be their first home game in this season's league phase, so there is no home-and-European form yet to judge them by specifically.
We could not confirm either side's starting line-up this far out from kick-off.
At 1.56, backing Dortmund to score twice or more is a bet that their scoring form travels against a side who concede chances even when they are winning comfortably at home. Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 goals at 1.56, backed at 1 unit.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Dortmund shots (on target), last 2 games13 (2), 21 (9)
- Dortmund league position1st Bundesliga, 13 pts from 5 games
- Bodo/Glimt shots (on target), last 2 home league games28 (10), 25 (8)
- Bodo/Glimt league position2nd Eliteserien, 53 pts from 22 games
- Bodo/Glimt's only game vs comparable European oppositionLost 0-5 away at Bayern Munich, CL matchday 1
- Dortmund over 1.5 team goals implied probability @1.5664.1%
Team news
No confirmed starting line-up was available for either side four days out from kick-off.Bodo/Glimt's artificial pitch and the mid-October conditions in northern Norway are an unknown factor, and this is their first Champions League home fixture of the campaign with no home-and-European form to judge them by. A heavily rotated Dortmund side, or a defensive Bodo/Glimt approach protecting their home record, would both work against the over.
Verdict
At 1.56, Dortmund over 1.5 team goals implies a 64.1% chance they score twice or more. They have done so in three of their last four competitive matches, home and away, against a Bodo/Glimt side that generates and concedes huge shot counts at home and shipped five without reply the only time they have faced a side of comparable quality to Dortmund in Europe this season.- Borussia Dortmund fixtures and results, ESPN — recent competitive form and shot data
- Bodo/Glimt fixtures and results, ESPN — recent home form and shot data
- Bundesliga standings, ESPN
- Eliteserien standings, ESPN
- Unibet UK, via the Kambi odds feed — goals market
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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