Tottenham vs Aston Villa: under 2.5 goals at 2.10
Spurs have not scored a league goal this season and Villa have one in four games. That makes odds-against for a low-scoring game look too big.
The case for a low-scoring game
Tottenham have not scored in the Premier League this season. BBC Sport put the drought at 407 minutes after Saturday's 0-0 with Everton. It is the first time Spurs have gone four successive Premier League matches without scoring since 2006. That came straight after a 0-0 at Nottingham Forest. The same report put their non-penalty xG per shot at just 0.066. Roberto De Zerbi's side have plenty of the ball but make little of it.
Aston Villa are not much sharper. They have one goal in four league games: 0-4 at Brighton, 0-1 v Arsenal, 0-0 at Hull and 1-2 at home to Forest. BBC Sport said Alysson's equaliser on Saturday ended a run of 372 Premier League minutes without a Villa goal. Villa also lost two defenders in that game, which should make Unai Emery more careful, not less.
Spurs' four league games have produced five goals. Villa's have produced eight, and half of those came in one bad afternoon at Brighton. Five of the eight went under 2.5. At 2.10 the market has the under at less than a coin flip. With two attacks this blunt, I think that's wrong.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Spurs league goals (26/27)0 in 4
- Villa league goals (26/27)1 in 4
- Total goals in Spurs league games5 in 4
- Under 2.5 in the two sides' league games5 of 8
- Spurs league minutes without a goal (BBC)407
Team news
Aston Villa lost left-back Ian Maatsen to an ankle injury against Forest, and BBC Sport reported a fear that he could be out for a considerable time, with new signing Matteo Ruggeri likely to step in. Centre-back Pau Torres went off in the first half against Forest. Villa also visit Coventry in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday.
For Spurs, James Maddison came back as a late substitute against Everton after a shoulder injury, and Dominic Solanke made his first league start of the season. Richarlison has been left out of the Premier League squad amid a contract dispute. Spurs play Liverpool in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday night.
Villa scored three at Club Brugge last week, so the goals are in there somewhere. Spurs spent over £300m in the summer, and one early goal could open the game up. Both sides play cup ties midweek, and tired defences can leak.
Verdict
2.10 implies 47.6%. I make under 2.5 goals about 55%. That is a real edge on a price that should be shorter, so 1 unit.