Azerbaijan vs Lithuania Prediction and Tips: Goals

Two draws, four group goals between them

Azerbaijan and Lithuania met in this Group D2 section just eight days ago in Vilnius and shared four goals across two very different halves before settling for a 1-1 draw. That result fits a pattern: every Nations League group game either side has played this season has produced fewer than three goals.

Azerbaijan have not lost in the group, but they haven't scored much either — a single goal in the 1-1 with Lithuania, then a blank in a 0-0 at home to Liechtenstein on 1 October. Their one goal in two group games tells its own story. Lithuania have been sharper in front of goal, winning 2-0 away at Liechtenstein, but even that game stayed under 2.5, and their only other big score this window — a 3-0 away friendly win over Andorra — came against a side with no competitive pressure on it, not a Group D2 rival.

Referee Gustavo Correia of Portugal has been appointed for Sunday's game; with no confirmed line-ups yet three days out, there's nothing in the team news to suggest either manager is about to abandon the caution both sides have shown in this section so far.

Backing Under 2.5 goals at 1.45, 1 unit.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Group D2 matches played by these two sides so far3
• Of those finishing under 2.5 goals3
• Goals in the reverse fixture (27 Sep)2 (1-1)
• Azerbaijan goals scored in 2 group games1
• Lithuania goals scored in 2 group games3

Team news

No line-ups are confirmed three days out. We found no injury or suspension news for either squad this week — both arrive from their most recent group fixtures with no reported fresh issues.

Verdict

At 1.45, Under 2.5 goals implies a 69% chance. All three Nations League Group D2 fixtures involving these two sides this season — Lithuania's 2-0 win at Liechtenstein, Azerbaijan's 0-0 with Liechtenstein, and the 1-1 draw between Azerbaijan and Lithuania themselves eight days ago — have finished under that mark. 1 unit.