Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth: both teams to score at 1.62
Bournemouth have scored in each of their last five games and Real Sociedad have kept one clean sheet in six La Liga matches. Both sides look likelier to score than to keep the other out.
The case for goals at both ends
Real Sociedad are leaking. Six La Liga games have brought 11 goals against, including 4-1 against Real Madrid and 3-0 against Atletico Madrid on Sunday. The only clean sheet was a 0-0 with Celta Vigo. They sit 12th with two wins from six, and the defence is the reason.
Bournemouth are the mirror image. They are still waiting for a first Premier League win, but they score. Their last five read 1-2 against Manchester City, 1-1 against Everton, 2-2 against Newcastle, 4-0 against Lincoln in the Carabao Cup and 2-2 against Brentford on Saturday. Ten goals, a goal in every game, and both teams scored in four of the five.
Real Sociedad did fail to score in three of their six league games, so the home goal is the part of this bet I watch. Those blanks came against Betis, Celta and Atletico, and they still found three against Elche and two against Espanyol. Bournemouth have conceded in four of their last five, and a home side opening its European campaign should find a way through.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Real Sociedad goals conceded, 6 La Liga games11
- Real Sociedad clean sheets, La Liga (26/27)1 of 6
- Bournemouth games scored in, last 55 of 5
- BTTS in Bournemouth's last 54 of 5
- Real Sociedad blanks, La Liga (26/27)3 of 6
Team news
Diario Vasco, via OneFootball, reports Real Sociedad right-back Jon Mikel Aramburu is suspended, carrying over a European ban. Igor Zubeldia is a doubt with hamstring discomfort, Pablo Marín's involvement is uncertain after injury, and Jon Martín is available again after serving a suspension.
LiveScore reports Bournemouth are without Eli Junior Kroupi (foot), Julián Araujo (thigh), Amine Adli (calf) and Veljko Milosavljević (knee), with Tyler Adams facing a fitness race.
Real Sociedad have failed to score in half of their league games, and a heavy defeat on Sunday could make them cautious. If Bournemouth rotate for their first European away trip, their attack may be blunter than their recent numbers suggest.
Verdict
At 1.62 the market gives both teams to score an implied probability of 61.7%. I make it about 65%, because Bournemouth's scoring run and Real Sociedad's leaky defence point the same way. Standard stake: 1 unit.