Strasbourg vs AJ Auxerre Prediction and Tips: Goals

Two leaky defences at the Meinau

Strasbourg's underlying numbers are not pretty. They have taken one point from their last five Ligue 1 games, conceding 11 goals in that spell and managing only four of their own, including a 3-0 home defeat to Rennes last time out.

Auxerre have been sturdier on the scoreboard - three wins from their last five - but their defence has leaked too: seven goals conceded in that spell, four of them in a single afternoon away at Rennes. Four of Strasbourg's last five league matches have produced three or more total goals, and three of Auxerre's last five have done the same.

We have not been able to confirm either side's exact starting eleven this far from kick-off, so this is built on the season's goals pattern rather than a line-up-specific edge; if either manager fields a heavily rotated side, the case weakens.

At 1.57 the market prices over 2.5 goals at roughly a 64% chance, which is not generous value given Strasbourg's own blunt attack this run. We are taking it at a reduced stake: Over 2.5 goals, built on two defences that keep conceding rather than two attacks in form.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Strasbourg goals conceded, last 5 league games11
• Auxerre goals conceded, last 5 league games7
• Matches with 3+ total goals, Strasbourg last 54 of 5
• Matches with 3+ total goals, Auxerre last 53 of 5

Team news

We have not been able to confirm either side's starting eleven this far from kick-off. This case is built on the season's goals pattern rather than a line-up-specific edge; a heavily rotated side on either side would weaken it.

Verdict

Strasbourg have conceded 11 and Auxerre 7 across their last five league games apiece, with the majority of those matches producing three or more goals. Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 is the tip, backed at a reduced stake given the short price.