AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at Bournemouth's shot numbers against them, Sunderland's defensive record on the road, and where the goals line sits against both sides' recent form.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two leaky defences and a shot count that backs the goals line
Bournemouth and Sunderland meet at Vitality Stadium both still looking for their first win since the third week of September, and both have been leaking goals at almost exactly the same rate. Bournemouth have taken a single point from their last four league games, conceding 10 in that run including a 5-1 defeat at Chelsea in which they still managed 9 shots of their own. Sunderland have been just as open at the other end, shipping 10 goals in their own last four — five of them in a 5-3 defeat at Manchester City — while generating 12, 11 and 17 shots in three of those four matches.
Neither side looks capable of keeping a clean sheet right now, and the shot counts back that up rather than just echoing the scorelines: both teams have averaged 13.8 shots a game over their last four league matches, a healthy volume for two sides sitting 17th and 18th in the table. That combination — both creating chances and both conceding freely — is the shape of fixture where a goals line can be underpriced.
We could not confirm either side's starting eleven four days out from kick-off, which adds some uncertainty, but neither manager has an obvious tactical reason to shut the game down against a fellow relegation-zone side they will see as a must-not-lose fixture to attack rather than contain.
At 1.83, over 2.5 goals is the pick.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Bournemouth goals scored, last 4 league games2, 2, 0, 1 (5 total)
- Bournemouth goals conceded, last 4 league games2, 2, 1, 5 (10 total)
- Sunderland goals scored, last 4 league games1, 0, 3, 0 (4 total)
- Sunderland goals conceded, last 4 league games1, 2, 5, 2 (10 total)
- Average total shots per game, last 4 league gamesBournemouth 13.8, Sunderland 13.8
- Over 2.5 goals implied probability @1.8354.6%
Team news
No confirmed team news was available for either side four days out from kick-off.
<p>Both teams are bottom-half strugglers who could just as easily grind out a cagey 0-0 or 1-0 if either manager decides the priority is not losing rather than attacking; Bournemouth have failed to score in two of their last four games, and the four-game sample behind these shot numbers is still a small one.</p>
Verdict
At 1.83, over 2.5 goals implies a 54.6% chance. Both sides have conceded 10 goals in their last four league games, both have put up an average of 13.8 shots a game in that spell, and neither has looked remotely like finding a defensive solution over the international break. Over 2.5 goals is the pick.
- AFC Bournemouth fixtures and results, ESPN — recent league form and shot data
- Sunderland fixtures and results, ESPN — recent league form and shot data
- Premier League table, ESPN — current league positions
- Unibet UK, via the Kambi odds feed — Total goals market
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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