Netherlands vs Serbia Prediction and Tips: Goals

Serbia's four-game losing run and a rematch five days on

Netherlands and Serbia met five days ago in Belgrade, and there is a reasonable chance the rematch in Eindhoven follows a similar shape. The first meeting finished 2-1 to the Dutch, but the shot count tells a wider story: Netherlands had 25 attempts and 8 on target to Serbia's 11 and 6, and still only won by a single goal. A game that lopsided should produce a bigger margin more often than not, and it did not.

Serbia's underlying numbers in this window are poor. They have lost both of their Group A2 fixtures so far, 1-2 at home to Greece and 1-2 away to the Dutch, and their overall run now stands at four defeats in a row going back to the summer. Their attacking output has been thin too: nine shots against Greece and eleven against Netherlands, both well below what their opponents managed in the same games. What Serbia have not done, though, is fail to score. They found the net in both of their Group A2 matches, against two of the stronger sides in the pool.

Netherlands have almost the opposite problem. Twenty-two shots and ten on target against Germany produced only a single goal and a 1-1 draw; twenty-five shots and eight on target against Serbia produced two. That is a conversion rate well under 15 per cent across the two games, short of what the shot count would suggest. They are creating enough to be expected to score again here, but not so much that a repeat of the concession at the other end looks unlikely.

Put the two sides together and the picture is fairly clear: Netherlands create enough to keep scoring, and Serbia, even while collecting nothing but defeats, have not been blanked. Both teams to score has landed in each of Serbia's last two matches and each of Netherlands' last two — a small sample, but a consistent one.

Both teams to score is the pick here, priced at 1.84.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Netherlands shots, last 2 Nations League games22 & 25
• Serbia shots on target, last 2 Nations League games4 & 6
• Serbia results, last 4 matchesL L L L
• Goals scored by Serbia, last 2 Nations League games1 & 1
• Total goals, first meeting (27 Sep)3

Team news

We have not been able to confirm the starting line-ups, injuries or suspensions for either squad from an official KNVB or FSS source at the time of writing. Treat the team news as unknown rather than assumed.

Verdict

Both teams to score at 1.84 implies a 54.3% chance. Serbia have scored in both of their Group A2 matches this window despite being heavily outshot, and Netherlands have failed to keep a clean sheet in either of their last two. We make this close to a coin flip or a little better, enough of an edge to back at this price.