Sassuolo vs AC Milan Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth weighs Sassuolo's leaky defence against Milan's scoring run before picking a goals market, not who wins at the Mapei Stadium.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Sassuolo's defence and Milan's scoring run
Sassuolo are 10th in Serie A on 7 points from five games (2W-1D-2L), and every single one of those five matches has finished with goals at both ends: 2-1 at Atalanta, 2-1 over Torino, 2-2 with Bologna, 3-2 over Juventus and 1-2 at Monza. They have scored in all five and conceded in all five, shipping nine goals along the way - the second-most of any side in the division so far.
AC Milan arrive 5th on 11 points, unbeaten in the league (3W-2D-0L), and have scored in four of their five games. But their two clean sheets this season were both against the bottom two in the table, Venezia and Lecce - hardly a test of a defence. Against the two sides with genuine attacking numbers they have faced, Torino and Juventus, both teams scored.
Sassuolo's defensive record makes them a significantly tougher attacking test than Venezia or Lecce, and Milan have shown they can be got at. We could not confirm either side's starting line-up this far out, so this is built on the pattern of results rather than the eleven that takes the pitch.
At 1.68, the market prices both teams to score at a 59.5% chance. Given Sassuolo's perfect BTTS record and Milan's tendency to concede against anyone with attacking numbers, both teams to score at 1.68 is the pick, backed at a full unit.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Sassuolo BTTS rate, last 5 league games5 of 5
- Sassuolo goals conceded, last 5 league games9 (2nd-most in Serie A)
- AC Milan BTTS rate, last 5 league games3 of 5
- AC Milan clean sheets, last 5 league games2 of 5 (vs Venezia, Lecce)
- Both teams to score implied probability @1.6859.5%
Team news
No confirmed starting line-ups were available from either club at the time of writing, two days out from kick-off.
Milan have shut out the bottom of the table twice already this season, and a similarly one-sided scoreline here - or a cagey low-scoring draw - would lose the bet. "No" is priced at 2.05, so the market gives that outcome a real chance too.
Verdict
Both teams to score at 1.68 implies a 59.5% chance. Sassuolo have done it in all five league games and Milan have conceded against every side with genuine attacking threat they have faced. We make the true chance closer to 65%, enough of a gap for a full unit.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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