Hungary vs Georgia Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth checks how little Hungary and Georgia have troubled the scoresheet in their opening two Nations League games before setting his line for Budapest.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Four games, two goals: Group B2's defensive habit
Hungary and Georgia meet in Budapest sitting level at the bottom of Group B2 after two rounds, both on a single point from a draw and a defeat, and both still looking for their first goal of the campaign.
The group as a whole has been unusually tight. Hungary lost 0-1 at home to Ukraine before drawing 0-0 away at Northern Ireland. Georgia lost 0-1 at home to Northern Ireland before drawing 0-0 away at Ukraine. Add it up and the four games played so far between these exact four sides have produced two goals in total.
It isn't that either side has stopped creating chances. Hungary have had 30 shots in their two games but only 5 on target; Georgia have had 25 shots with 10 on target. Both sides are getting into position and failing to convert, against two defences (Ukraine and Northern Ireland) that have conceded nothing between them in the same four games.
We haven't seen confirmed line-ups for this one and aren't pricing in any specific injury, but nothing in the attacking personnel reported for either squad looks like a game-changer on its own. At 1.78, under 2.5 goals implies a 56.2% chance - reasonable against a group that has managed 2 goals in 4 games. Under 2.5 goals, 1 unit, confidence 4/5.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Goals scored across Group B2's first 4 games2
- Hungary goals scored, 2 NL games0
- Georgia goals scored, 2 NL games0
- Hungary shots / on target30 / 5
- Georgia shots / on target25 / 10
Team news
We could not find confirmed starting line-ups or a specific injury list for either squad as of 1 Oct. Nothing in general squad news for either side flagged a frontline striker as a confirmed doubt, but we are not treating the line-ups as settled.
Only four games of data back this view, and all of it comes from the same small four-team group - an early goal or a defensive mistake can turn a cagey game into a shootout for whichever side is chasing it. Stake held at 1 unit rather than Tom's 2-unit maximum.
Verdict
At 1.78, under 2.5 goals carries an implied probability of 56.2%. Two goals in the four games already played inside this group says that number is too low for what has been one of this Nations League's most defensive groups so far.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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