Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburg SV Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at two defences that keep leaking goals as Eintracht Frankfurt host a struggling Hamburg SV side in the Bundesliga.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two leaky defences and a scoring habit
Eintracht Frankfurt sit 14th in the Bundesliga table, which undersells how eventful their matches have been. They've conceded 17 goals in 11 league games this season, including a 6-0 defeat at RB Leipzig last time out, and have shipped goals in all but one of their last six outings.
Hamburg SV, who travel to Frankfurt on Sunday, aren't much tighter at the back. Sitting 11th on 9 points, they've conceded 16 goals in 11 games, with two separate 5-goal concessions - at home to Mainz and away at RB Leipzig - inside their last eight matches.
Line up the two sides' recent matches and the pattern holds. Frankfurt's last six league games have produced 5, 4, 4, 6, 1 and 1 total goals - an average of 3.5 - while Hamburg's last six have gone 5, 5, 3, 5, 1 and 1, also 3.33. Four of Frankfurt's last six matches and three of Hamburg's have finished with four or more goals.
We haven't found a confirmed injury or team-news line for either side beyond the general squad picture, so this is built on the pattern in their recent matches rather than any specific personnel edge.
At odds of 1.93, over 3.5 goals only needs this match to look like most of the pair's recent ones rather than their tightest. Tom backs over 3.5 goals, 1 unit.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Frankfurt goals conceded (11 games)17
- Hamburg goals conceded (11 games)16
- Frankfurt last 6 matches - total goals5, 4, 4, 6, 1, 1
- Hamburg last 6 matches - total goals5, 5, 3, 5, 1, 1
- Frankfurt matches with 4+ goals (last 6)4 of 6
- Hamburg matches with 4+ goals (last 6)3 of 6
Team news
We did not find a confirmed team-news or injury line for either side ahead of this one beyond the general squad picture, so no personnel edge is factored into this tip.
Frankfurt's last two matches have both finished 1-0, and if that tighter pattern continues rather than their higher-scoring games from earlier in October, this total could fall short.
Verdict
At 1.93, over 3.5 goals implies a 51.8% chance. Frankfurt's last six matches have produced 5, 4, 4, 6, 1 and 1 total goals; Hamburg's last six have gone 5, 5, 3, 5, 1 and 1. Both sides' matches have landed on or above this total more often than not, and both defences remain some of the Bundesliga's leakiest. Tom backs the over.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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