Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig Prediction and Tips: Goals

Shot volume on both sides at the Allianz Arena

Bayern Munich have been one of the most shot-heavy teams in the Bundesliga over the last month, and RB Leipzig have matched them for attacking intent even in a difficult run of fixtures. Neither side is shy about taking shots, and that is the starting point for a goals tip rather than the league table.

In Bayern's last three competitive matches – the 2-2 draw at Augsburg, the 7-0 win over Union Berlin and the 1-2 away win at Elversberg – they have put together 30, 23 and 28 shots respectively, with double-digit shots on target in two of the three. The 2-2 draw stands out: Augsburg managed only 12 shots and 5 on target but still found the net twice, which says more about Bayern's defensive concentration lapsing than about the opposition being threatening. A high-shot-volume team that occasionally switches off at the back is a team that tends to be involved in high-scoring matches at both ends.

Leipzig, for their part, arrive in good scoring form: a 6-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt and a 5-0 win over Hamburg SV either side of a 0-2 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen. Even in that loss they had 12 shots to Leverkusen's 18, so the underlying attacking numbers have stayed healthy through a mixed run of results. Across their last three league games they have scored 11 goals and conceded only 2, with one of those two coming in a game they still lost comfortably on shots.

Put the two sides together and you get a match with a well-documented goals supply on both ends: an attack-first home side who have conceded goals at a rate well above their underlying defensive numbers suggest they should, against an away side averaging almost four goals a game across their last three outings. We could not confirm either side's starting eleven this far from kick-off, so there is a caveat on team news, but at the squad level there is nothing to suggest either manager is planning anything defensively cautious.

With the market pricing a repeat of a tight, low-scoring Bundesliga game at odds that look generous given both sides' shot and goal data, Tom Ashworth's pick is over 3.5 goals at 1.40.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Bayern Munich shots, last 3 competitive games30, 23, 28
• Bayern Munich shots on target, last 3 games10, 15, 6
• Bayern Munich goals, last 5 league games2, 7, 2, 0, 0 (2 of last 5 at 0, one a 7-0 win)
• RB Leipzig shots, last 3 league games20, 12, 19
• RB Leipzig goals scored, last 3 league games6, 0, 5
• RB Leipzig goals conceded, last 3 league games0, 2, 0

Team news

We have not been able to confirm team news or starting line-ups five days out from kick-off for either side. Bayern have had no reported long-term absentees derailing their attack in recent weeks; Leipzig's forward line has started consistently across their last three league games. Both points will be rechecked closer to kick-off and are not baked into this price.

Verdict

Over 3.5 goals at 1.40 implies a breakeven probability of roughly 71%. Given Bayern's shot volume (30, 23 and 28 in their last three games) and the leakiness that let Augsburg score twice off only 12 shots, combined with Leipzig's own scoring run of 11 goals in three league games, a repeat of a tight 1-0 or 1-1 game looks like the less likely outcome here. The stake is trimmed to 0.75 units because the price sits below Tom's usual range for a goals total and team news could not be confirmed this far out.