Italy vs Türkiye Prediction and Tips: Goals

Shots, scorelines and a repeat fixture in Bologna

Italy and Türkiye met in Group A1 just eight days ago, and it was not close: Italy won 4-1 away, with Türkiye managing only three shots on target from fifteen attempts while Italy created eight on target from fourteen. That match alone produced five goals. Three days before that, Italy had lost 0-2 at home to Belgium while still generating six shots on target and twenty-one shots in total - a scoreline that did not match the volume of chances either side created.

Across their last two Nations League outings, Italy's matches have produced seven goals between the two teams on the pitch, and Türkiye's have produced six. Türkiye sit bottom of Group A1 without a point, having conceded five goals in two games, while Italy - despite that home defeat to Belgium - have scored four and created enough volume in both matches to suggest their finishing has lagged their chance creation rather than the other way round.

We have not seen confirmed starting line-ups for either side this far out (three days before kick-off), so there is some risk if either manager rotates heavily for a game that is now low-stakes for the group table. Weighing that against the shot volume and scoring data from the last two rounds, the market's 2.5 goals line looks set a touch low for a fixture between a bottom-of-group side conceding freely and a top-half side already up for a repeat performance. The pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.56.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Goals in Italy's last 2 Nations League matches (combined)7
• Goals in Türkiye's last 2 Nations League matches (combined)6
• Shots on target created by Italy, last 2 games (combined)14
• Shots on target by Türkiye in the away defeat to Italy3
• Türkiye goals conceded, Nations League 2026/275

Team news

No confirmed starting line-up for either side is available three days out. We have not found any reported injuries or suspensions affecting key attackers for Italy or Türkiye at time of writing - if that changes before kick-off, it would be a reason to reconsider the total.

Verdict

Over 2.5 goals at 1.56 implies a 64% chance. Across their last two Nations League matches, Italy have been involved in matches totalling 7 goals and Türkiye in matches totalling 6 - including this exact fixture 8 days ago, which produced 5. That puts our number above the market's.