Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at the shot numbers both sides have put up in the Champions League league phase so far, ahead of their meeting at Signal Iduna Park.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two high-volume attacks in the league phase
Borussia Dortmund have played three Champions League league-phase matches this season: a 3-2 home win over Villarreal, a 0-1 away defeat at Bodo/Glimt, and a 2-1 away win at Sabah FK. Across those three games they have averaged 16.3 shots and 6.3 shots on target per match, while allowing opponents 12.3 shots and 4.3 shots on target. The raw scorelines total 5, 1 and 3 goals - an average of exactly 3.0 goals per game.
Real Betis have had an even busier three games: a 3-2 away win at Lille, a 3-2 home win over FC Porto, and a 1-0 home win over Feyenoord. Their shot numbers are higher still - 20.0 shots and 7.3 shots on target per game on average - though the Feyenoord game shows they can also win low-scoring when the chances don't all go in. The three scorelines add up to 5, 5 and 1 goals, for an average of 3.7 goals per match.
Put the two sets of numbers together and the blended average across these six league-phase matches sits a little above 3.3 total goals, with both sides creating enough shot volume to keep testing a goalkeeper rather than parking on a result. No line-ups are out this far from kick-off, so this is built on the team-level shot and goals data rather than injury news - worth a check closer to kick-off. With both sides' underlying shot numbers this high, the lean is over 2.5 goals.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Dortmund shots per CL game (3 games)16.3
- Dortmund shots on target per CL game6.3
- Real Betis shots per CL game (3 games)20.0
- Real Betis shots on target per CL game7.3
- Avg total goals in Dortmund's 3 CL games3.0
- Avg total goals in Betis's 3 CL games3.7
Team news
No confirmed starting line-ups for either side at the time of writing, six days out, and we found no reports of a first-choice striker or creative midfielder being a doubt for either Dortmund or Real Betis.
Both sides have also shown they can win games tight - Dortmund's 0-1 defeat at Bodo/Glimt and Betis's 1-0 win over Feyenoord both finished under 2.5 goals in the Champions League this season, so a cagey, low-event night is not out of the question, and the price (1.49) already has the market mostly on board with the over.
Verdict
Dortmund's 16.3 shots and Betis's 20.0 shots per Champions League league-phase game are both well above the kind of volume that tends to produce low-scoring matches, and the six games between them have averaged 3.3 total goals. At 1.49 the market prices over 2.5 goals at roughly 67% - a touch below what the shot and goals data here suggest, though not by a wide margin, which is why the stake is kept to a single unit rather than pushed higher.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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