RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg Prediction and Tips: Goals

Leipzig's home and away split tells two different stories

RB Leipzig and SV Elversberg arrive at this one just a place and a point apart in the Bundesliga table - Leipzig 7th with 9 points, Elversberg a surprising 6th with 10 - but the story changes once you split Leipzig's season into home and away form.

At the Red Bull Arena, Leipzig have been nearly unstoppable: 6-0 against Eintracht Frankfurt, 5-0 against Hamburg SV and 3-0 against Borussia Monchengladbach, an average of 4.7 goals a game with a clean sheet in all three. On the road it has been a different team altogether - 1-6 at Bayern Munich last time out, 0-2 at Bayer Leverkusen and 1-3 at Werder Bremen, averaging just 0.7 goals scored away from home.

Elversberg, for all their good league position as a newly-promoted side, have not been difficult to score against on their travels. They have conceded 3 or more in two of their last four away league games, including a 4-3 shootout away at Borussia Monchengladbach, even if a goalless draw at Schalke shows they can also keep things tight.

The market prices Leipzig's own goal total at 2.5, with the over at 1.72. Measured against a home record of 6, 5 and 3 goals in three games, that line looks beatable, even if three matches is not a full season of evidence and Leipzig's confidence may have taken a knock after being thumped 6-1 at Bayern last weekend.

No team news is confirmed from either club with six days still to go, and the stake here is trimmed a little to reflect both that gap in information and the small home sample. On the numbers so far, the tip is RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals at 1.72.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Leipzig goals scored, 3 home league games this season6, 5, 3 (avg 4.7)
• Leipzig goals scored, 3 away league games this season1, 0, 1 (avg 0.7)
• Elversberg goals conceded, last 4 away league games1, 0, 3, 2
• Market line for Leipzig team goals2.5 (over 1.72 / under 1.97)

Team news

No confirmed line-ups from either club yet with the game still six days away. Leipzig were beaten 6-1 away at Bayern Munich last time out, which may raise a question or two about personnel, but we have not seen any confirmed injury news either way.

Verdict

RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals at 1.72 implies a 58.1% chance. In their three home league games this season Leipzig have scored 6, 5 and 3 goals - every one of them with a clean sheet - for an average of 4.7. Their away form (1, 0, 1) is a completely different picture, but this match is at the Red Bull Arena. Elversberg have also conceded 3 or more in two of their last four away league games. The gap between Leipzig's actual home output and the market's 2.5 line looks wide enough to back, even allowing for the small sample.