Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at two of Europe's most prolific attacks going into Der Klassiker level on points at the top of the Bundesliga.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two level-on-points sides who don't stop scoring
Der Klassiker lands at an unusual moment: Bayern and Dortmund meet level on 17 points, first and second in the Bundesliga, each with no reason to play for a draw. That kind of match-up, between two in-form attacking sides with points to prove, tends to produce goals - and the recent results back it up.
Bayern's last seven Bundesliga games have produced 31 goals in total (4.4 a game): a 7-0 win over Union Berlin, a 6-1 win over RB Leipzig and a 5-1 win over Stuttgart, interrupted only by a goalless draw away at Schalke. Four of those seven games had four or more goals.
Dortmund have been tighter in attack but still involved in goals: their last seven have averaged 2.3 a game, including a 2-2 draw with Werder Bremen and a 5-3 away win at Hoffenheim, with the quiet spells (0-0 at Union Berlin, 1-0 over Frankfurt) the exception rather than the rule. Away from home they have conceded in four of their last five league games, which matters against a Bayern side scoring at this rate.
We have not pulled shot or expected-goals data for this one given the lookahead window - this is built on goals scored in league fixtures over the last seven rounds rather than Tom's full shot-based model, which is worth flagging plainly rather than presenting as the complete picture. Even so, the market's 3.5-goal line looks short of what two fluent, motivated attacks going at each other with the Bundesliga's early pace-setting spot in the balance usually produce.
Over 3.5 goals at 1.58 is the pick, for 0.75 units.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Bayern Munich goals, last 7 Bundesliga games31 (4.4/game)
- Borussia Dortmund goals, last 7 Bundesliga games16 (2.3/game)
- Bayern games with 4+ goals (last 7)4 of 7
- League positionBayern 1st, Dortmund 2nd, level on 17 pts
Team news
We did not find any specific injury or suspension news for either side this far from kick-off; both are expected close to full strength on recent line-ups. Team news will firm up closer to the match.
Bayern have shown they can go quiet (a 0-0 at Schalke in this run) - if the derby tension produces a cagey first hour instead of end-to-end football, this is the kind of match that goes under.
Verdict
Two attacking sides, level on points, both needing the win more than the draw. The recent goals data on both sides points well clear of this match's 3.5-goal line, even allowing for the fact this is built on goals scored rather than a full shot-based model.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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