Genoa vs Venezia Prediction and Tips: Goals

Two leaky defences near the bottom of the table

Genoa sit 17th with four points from seven games and a goal difference of -8; Venezia are bottom on three points with a goal difference of -10. Between them this is one of the uglier defensive pairings left in Serie A this season.

Genoa's last five league games have gone 1-4 (Como), 1-1 (Frosinone), 1-2 at Parma, 2-1 at home over Fiorentina and 0-2 at Roma - five goals scored, ten conceded, fifteen in total across those five matches (3.0 a game). Venezia's last five have gone 2-3 at Frosinone, 2-4 at home to Fiorentina, 0-2 at home to Lazio, 1-3 at Atalanta and 1-0 at home over Napoli - six scored, twelve conceded, eighteen in total (3.6 a game). Both sides keep conceding regardless of the scoreline, and Venezia's only win in that run was the one match where they kept a rare clean sheet.

We did not pull shot or expected-goals data for either side this run - our usual first step on a goals tip - so this is built from goals-for/against trends rather than the full checklist. That gap is being flagged rather than hidden, and it is why the stake below is cut and the confidence capped.

At 1.88, the market prices over 2.5 goals at an implied 53.2%. Both sides' matches have been running well above that total recently, which is enough of a gap to make the over the pick, but only at reduced stake given the missing shot numbers: over 2.5 goals at 1.88.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Genoa goals scored, last 5 league games5
• Genoa goals conceded, last 5 league games10
• Venezia goals scored, last 5 league games6
• Venezia goals conceded, last 5 league games12
• Combined goals in Genoa's last 5 matches15 (3.0/game)
• Combined goals in Venezia's last 5 matches18 (3.6/game)

Team news

No confirmed starting line-ups are available this far from kick-off for either side, and we have not found a specific injury list for either club from club or wire sources in the time available this run.

Verdict

Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 implies a 53.2% chance of three or more goals in the match. Genoa's own games have produced 3.0 goals a game over their last five, Venezia's 3.6 - both above that implied mark, even though neither side has scored much themselves. That gap is the bet. It is built on goals-for/against trends rather than a full shot-based number this time (we did not pull FBref/Understat shot data this run), which is why the stake is cut to 0.75 units and confidence capped at 2 out of 5.