Brentford vs Chelsea: both teams to score at 1.40
Chelsea have conceded at least twice in all four league games, and Brentford have scored in every one of theirs. It's a short price, but still a touch too big.
The case for goals at both ends
Chelsea are the Premier League's top scorers with 10 goals in four games. They have also conceded nine. BBC Sport notes they have let in two or more in each of their opening four league matches for the first time in 11 years, and they have gone 20 league matches without a clean sheet, back to January. Both teams scored in all four of their league games: 3-2 at Fulham, 4-3 v Brighton, 1-2 at Arsenal and 2-2 v Hull.
Brentford are unbeaten after four games (W1 D3) and have scored in every one: 3-0 v Spurs, then 1-1 at Leeds, 1-1 v Sunderland and 2-2 at Bournemouth. Three of their four league games have landed this bet. BBC Sport flagged Brentford's threat at set-pieces as a worry for Chelsea going into Friday.
Put together, seven of the eight league games these two have played have seen both sides score. Xabi Alonso admitted after the Hull draw that his side are "attacking better than defending in every part". Nothing he can do in a week changes that.
Form guide
Key numbers
- BTTS in Chelsea league games (26/27)4 of 4
- BTTS in Brentford league games (26/27)3 of 4
- Chelsea league goals conceded9 in 4
- Chelsea league games without a clean sheet20
- Brentford league recordW1 D3 L0
Team news
Brentford captain Nathan Collins will not be involved before the international break after a calf injury picked up against Sunderland, Keith Andrews confirmed at his news conference (reported by BBC Sport). That weakens the home defence.
Chelsea were without Moises Caicedo for the Hull draw, and BBC Sport described him as still out injured. His fitness for Friday had not been confirmed at the time of writing. Brentford also play a Carabao Cup tie at Reading on Tuesday night.
At 1.40 there is little room for error. Brentford kept a clean sheet against Spurs, so a one-sided game is possible. If Alonso tightens things up after the criticism of his defence, one end could stay shut.
Verdict
1.40 implies 71.4%. I make both teams to score around 76%, based on Chelsea's defence and Brentford's scoring record. It's a small edge at a short price, so a standard 1 unit.