Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction and Tips: Goals

Two sides who haven't kept it tight in Europe

Sunderland's Premier League season has been bleak reading on paper — bottom of the table with five points from nine games — but the picture in Europe is different. In the Europa League league phase they are unbeaten: two wins and a draw from three games, winning 2-1 away at Torreense and drawing 1-1 at home with Lech Poznań, for a combined record of four goals scored and two conceded across the three.

Dinamo Zagreb's league-phase record is one win, one draw and one loss, which puts them 18th in the 36-team table on four points. The number that stands out is the goals conceded column: three games, four against, with all four of those coming in a single result — a 4-2 home defeat to NEC Nijmegen last time out in the competition. A team that has just shown it can concede four at home in this competition is not one to trust to keep Sunderland quiet here.

Both sides have also been scoring goals domestically and in Europe without much let-up — Sunderland won 3-2 at home to Brentford in their last Premier League fixture, and every Europa League league-phase score involving either club this season has included goals at both ends or a one-sided margin, never a 0-0 or 1-0 grind. We haven't checked Dinamo Zagreb's domestic Croatian league form for this piece — the view here rests specifically on what both sides have shown in this competition, plus Sunderland's Premier League numbers.

At 1.65, the market prices over 2.5 goals at an implied 60.6% chance. Given neither defence has kept this competition's games tight, that looks like fair value: over 2.5 goals, 0.75 units.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Sunderland Europa League record2W-1D-0L, scored 4, conceded 2
• Dinamo Zagreb Europa League record1W-1D-1L, scored 3, conceded 4
• Zagreb's last European resultLost 2-4 at home to NEC Nijmegen
• Sunderland's last Premier League resultWon 3-2 at home to Brentford

Team news

No confirmed starting line-ups for either side as of the day before kick-off. Sunderland have used a fairly settled group across their Thursday night European fixtures so far this season. We were not able to verify Dinamo Zagreb's current injury or suspension list, so this tip is built on team-level form rather than individual availability.

Verdict

Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 implies a 60.6% chance. Sunderland have scored in and conceded in every Europa League league-phase game they've played; Dinamo Zagreb have just shipped four in one match in this competition. Backing the goals line over the result market here.