Switzerland vs North Macedonia Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at Switzerland's ruthless start to their Nations League group, North Macedonia's struggles at both ends, and what the reverse fixture said about this one.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Switzerland's ruthless start and North Macedonia's goal drought
Group B1 of the Nations League has turned into a two-speed affair after three rounds. Switzerland have won all three, scoring eight and conceding one; North Macedonia have lost all three, scoring none and conceding seven. When these two met in Skopje on 26 September, Switzerland won 3-0 while out-shooting the hosts 23-2, with North Macedonia failing to register a shot on target all game.
The goals have not been a one-off. Switzerland's 2-1 win over Slovenia and their 3-0 win away at Scotland both finished with the same scoreline total as the North Macedonia game: three goals. Every Group B1 match Switzerland have played this campaign has had exactly three goals in it, home or away.
North Macedonia's problem is not just the scoreline but the process behind it. They have landed one shot on target in 21 attempts across their three group games combined, and have not put together a sustained spell of pressure against any of the three sides above them. Their goal threat depends almost entirely on Switzerland easing off, which Switzerland have shown no sign of doing against the bottom side in this group.
We have not found a confirmed Switzerland line-up or fresh team-news line this far out from kick-off, and could not confirm the referee appointment at the time of writing. No significant weather concern has been flagged for Lucerne in early October.
At 1.46, the market prices over 2.5 goals at an implied 68.5%. Three from three Group B1 matches involving Switzerland landing exactly three goals, against a side that has shipped seven without scoring once, is enough of an edge to take over 2.5 goals.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Switzerland goals for/against, Group B1 (3 games)8-1
- North Macedonia goals for/against, Group B1 (3 games)0-7
- Shots in the reverse fixture (26 Sep)Switzerland 23, North Macedonia 2
- North Macedonia shots on target, Group B1 (3 games)1 (from 21 attempts)
- Group B1 matches with exactly 3 goals3 of 3 involving Switzerland
Team news
We could not find a confirmed Switzerland starting eleven or any fresh injury news this far out from kick-off. North Macedonia have named broadly the same group of players throughout the campaign; no specific team news changes our read of a side that has not scored in the group.
A heavily rotated Switzerland XI is the main risk, along with the game being won and shut down early if Switzerland go 2-0 or 3-0 up well before half-time. North Macedonia have shown no attacking answer in this group, so this is built on Switzerland's output rather than a true two-way goals market.
Verdict
At 1.46, the market prices over 2.5 goals at an implied 68.5%. Every Group B1 match Switzerland have played this campaign has finished with exactly three goals, and North Macedonia have managed one shot on target in 21 attempts across those same three games. The edge sits comfortably clear of our 3-point minimum.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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