SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich Prediction and Tips: Goals

Bayern's shot volume on the road

Bayern Munich arrive at the Europa-Park Stadion as the Bundesliga's runaway top scorers, and this is a genuine 1st vs 3rd fixture: Bayern lead on 14 points, Freiburg sit 3rd on 13. Freiburg have been one of the league's better stories themselves, but the gap in attacking firepower is the story of this match.

Bayern have scored 7, 2 and 6 goals in their last three Bundesliga outings - 15 in total - and it is not a case of one or two one-sided scorelines flattering the numbers. Their shot counts in those same three games were 23, 30 and 29, with 15, 10 and 17 of those on target respectively. That is an attack creating and hitting the target at a rate well above the Bundesliga average.

Freiburg's own form has been solid - four wins from six including a 5-0 thrashing of Borussia Monchengladbach - but their defence has looked more open recently, conceding in both of their last two league games (a 2-1 win over Schalke 04 and a 1-2 loss at Bayer Leverkusen). They are not an easy side to shut out, which cuts both ways here.

Given Bayern's shot volume has been consistently elite across the last three league games and Freiburg have not kept a clean sheet lately, the tip is Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals at 1.75.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Bayern Munich Bundesliga goals, last 3 league games7, 2, 6 (15 in 3 games)
• Bayern Munich shots / shots on target, last 3 league games23 (15 SOT), 30 (10 SOT), 29 (17 SOT)
• Bayern Munich league record4W-2D-0L, 14pts, 1st
• SC Freiburg league record4W-1D-1L, 13pts, 3rd
• SC Freiburg's last 2 league gamesW 2-1 Schalke 04, L 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen

Team news

No confirmed line-ups six days out. Both sides played in Europe within the last two weeks (Freiburg's Conference League win over Jablonec, Bayern's 3-3 draw at Viking FK), but neither game was recent enough to flag as a short-turnaround rotation risk for this one.

Verdict

Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals at 1.75 implies a 57.1% chance. Bayern have scored 15 goals in their last three Bundesliga games (7, 2, 6) and the shot numbers support the volume: 23, 30 and 29 shots, with double-digit shots on target in every one of those matches. Against a Freiburg defence that has conceded in two of its last three league games, that shot volume supports backing Bayern's own total rather than the game as a whole.