Bayern Munich vs Arsenal Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth checks Bayern Munich's extreme shot volume against Arsenal's inconsistent away form as the two sides meet in the Champions League at the Allianz Arena.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Bayern's shot volume against Arsenal's leaky away games
Bayern's shot volume against Arsenal's leaky away games
Bayern Munich are 3rd in the Bundesliga on 11 points from five games (3W-2D-0L), having scored 16 and conceded just 4. Arsenal sit 2nd in the Premier League on 15 points from six games (5W-0D-1L), with 10 scored and 5 conceded. Both arrive into this Champions League League Phase meeting already on 6 points from two games.
Bayern's underlying shot numbers are extreme even by their own standards: 23 shots (15 on target) in a 7-0 win over 1. FC Union Berlin, 30 shots (10 on target) in a 2-2 draw away at Augsburg, and 25 shots (8 on target) in a 3-3 draw away at Viking in the Champions League. All three of those matches finished with more than 2.5 total goals.
Arsenal's own attack has been productive away from home in Europe — 16 shots (8 on target) in a 3-0 win over Lille — but their away form in the league has been shakier: 11 shots and only 2 on target in a 3-0 defeat at Brighton, their one league loss this season. Bayern create enough volume on their own to trouble most defences, and Arsenal's away matches have swung between comfortable and porous rather than consistently tight.
We could not confirm either side's starting line-up this far out from kick-off.
At 1.65, backing over 2.5 goals is a bet that Bayern's shot volume at home continues to produce goals regardless of how disciplined Arsenal's defence is on the night. Over 2.5 goals at 1.65, backed at 1 unit.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Bayern Munich shots (on target), last 3 games23 (15), 30 (10), 25 (8)
- Bayern Munich league position3rd Bundesliga, 11 pts from 5 games
- Arsenal shots (on target), last 3 games13 (6), 16 (8), 11 (2)
- Arsenal league position2nd Premier League, 15 pts from 6 games
- Over 2.5 goals implied probability @1.6560.6%
Team news
No confirmed starting line-up was available for either side six days out from kick-off.<p>Arsenal's Premier League defensive record is one of the better ones outside the top two (5 conceded in 6 games), and two of Bayern's last three matches were draws rather than clean wins, so the shot volume has not always converted cleanly. If Bayern rotate for a fixture where both sides have already banked two wins in the group phase, or Arsenal defend as tightly as they did for long spells domestically, the total could stay under.</p>
Verdict
At 1.65, over 2.5 goals implies a 60.6% chance of three or more in the match. Bayern have cleared that line in each of their last three matches regardless of opponent, generating 23-30 shots a game, and Arsenal's away matches this season have ranged from comfortable to porous rather than consistently tight.- Bayern Munich fixtures and results, ESPN — recent form and shot data
- Arsenal fixtures and results, ESPN — recent form and shot data
- Bundesliga standings, ESPN
- Premier League standings, ESPN
- Unibet UK, via the Kambi odds feed — goals market
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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