Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at how both sides have been scoring and conceding in the Premier League lately, and what that means for the goals market at Anfield.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two sides short of goals in their last five
Arsenal arrive at Anfield as the league's form side on paper — second, 21 points, beaten only once in their last five — but the thing that stands out from their recent results is how low-scoring most of them have been. Four goals conceded in five Premier League games, and three of those five finishing with three total goals or fewer.
Liverpool's numbers tell a similar story from the other side of the ball. This is a team that has scored just five goals in its last five league outings, with four of those five games finishing under 2.5 goals — the exception being the 3-0 home defeat to Manchester City, in which Liverpool themselves failed to score at all.
Put the two runs together and this fixture has had a lid on it from both ends recently: four of Liverpool's last five Premier League matches and three of Arsenal's last five finished under 2.5 goals. Anfield carries an attacking reputation, but neither side is currently scoring at the rate that reputation suggests, and Arsenal in particular have been built on a back four that is conceding under a goal a game.
We could not confirm either manager's starting XI for Saturday, and a returning attacker on either side would be worth checking before kick-off. On the numbers both teams have actually produced over their last five league games, though, the case is for a tight one: under 2.5 goals.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Liverpool goals scored, last 5 PL games5
- Arsenal goals conceded, last 5 PL games4
- Liverpool PL games under 2.5 goals (last 5)4 of 5
- Arsenal PL games under 2.5 goals (last 5)3 of 5
Team news
We could not confirm either manager's starting XI for Saturday at the time of writing. Arsenal have kept a settled XI through their recent run; a change to their back line or front three, or to Liverpool's forward options, would move this number and is worth checking closer to kick-off.
<p>Both sides have scored freely against weaker opposition this season, so a game that opens up in the second half would beat this line. Anfield's atmosphere tends to push Liverpool onto the front foot early, which is exactly the kind of start that can produce a high-scoring game rather than a tight one.</p>
Verdict
Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 implies a 51.8% chance of three goals or fewer. Liverpool have gone under that line in four of their last five league games and Arsenal in three of their last five, with both sides' underlying scoring and conceding numbers pointing the same way. Stake trimmed slightly to 0.75 units because Anfield's atmosphere and both side's quality going forward mean a single early goal could change the shape of the game quickly.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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