Türkiye vs Italy Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth on a Group 1 meeting between two sides who both drew a blank in their Nations League openers.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two blunt attacks after a losing start
Türkiye lost their Nations League opener 0-1 at home to France, managing 12 shots but only 3 on target - Arda Güler was the closest to scoring. Zoom out to their last five games across competitions and the shape is similar: 5 goals scored, 7 conceded, with two of those five ending goalless or with a single goal on one side.
Italy's opener was worse in the box score than the scoreline: 21 shots and 55.9% possession away at Belgium, but only 6 on target and a 0-2 defeat. Over their last five they've scored 5 and conceded 6, a total of 11 goals in 5 games - 2.2 a match. Add Türkiye's 2.4-a-match rate over the same window and the projected total for this fixture sits at roughly 2.3 goals, comfortably under the 2.5 line.
Neither side found the net in their most recent competitive match, both are already facing an uphill task in the group after matchday one, and the underlying shot numbers - plenty of shots, not many on target, for both - point to more of the same rather than a shootout. We're backing under 2.5 goals at 2.06.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Türkiye combined goals, last 5 games12 (2.4/game)
- Italy combined goals, last 5 games11 (2.2/game)
- Türkiye shots on target in NL opener (0-1 loss)3 of 12 shots
- Italy shots on target in NL opener (0-2 loss)6 of 21 shots
Team news
No line-up has been confirmed by either federation two days out, and we found nothing on either side's injury list. This is a numbers-led tip rather than a team-news one.
Both sides just lost their opener and a reaction performance from either could open the game up; Italy in particular had 21 shots against Belgium, so if a couple start finding the target this goes over quickly. A red card or an early goal that forces the game open would also break the under.
Verdict
2.06 for under 2.5 goals implies a 48.5% chance before the bookmaker's margin. Our own read of the last five games for both sides puts the projected total nearer 2.3 than 2.5, and both teams have just shown they can go a whole match without scoring against decent opposition. That's enough of a gap to take the price.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
More predictions
Belgium vs France
