Torino vs Monza Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at two inconsistent Serie A defences and a shot count that keeps pointing one way, to find the value in the goals market.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two leaky sides and a shot count that keeps adding up
Torino are 10th in Serie A on 10 points from seven games, and their last five league matches have gone 3-2-2-3-3 for total goals - three of the five finished with three or more. Monza are 14th on seven points and have lost four of their last five, but it hasn't been for lack of goals at either end: those five games went 4-3-5-2-5, with four of five finishing at three or more. Put together, that's seven of the last ten league matches played by these two clubs landing on three-plus goals.
The shot numbers back up the pattern, at least on one side. In their last three Serie A games, Monza have had 6, 11 and 6 shots on target - a side that keeps creating chances even while losing, mostly because their defence keeps giving opponents the same. Torino's own shot-on-target numbers over the same stretch are more modest, 4, 3 and 3, which is the honest caveat here: this is more a case for Monza's matches running open than for Torino suddenly turning into an attacking force.
We have not found confirmed team news or starting line-ups for either side two days out from kick-off, so nothing here is adjusted for a specific injury or suspension, and this is built on the form and shot numbers above rather than a nailed-down XI. No referee angle applies to a goals total, so that hasn't been checked.
Torino's own attacking shot volume is the one thing holding this back from a stronger rating, but the combined scoring pattern and Monza's leaky, chance-conceding defence are enough to back the total. The pick is Over 2.5 goals at 2.02, one unit.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Torino Serie A goals, last 5 games (for-against)6-7
- Torino last 5 games with 3+ total goals3 of 5
- Monza Serie A goals, last 5 games (for-against)8-11
- Monza last 5 games with 3+ total goals4 of 5
- Monza shots on target, last 3 games6, 11, 6
Team news
We have not found confirmed team news for either side two days out from kick-off. No reported injury or suspension changes the picture below for either team, and neither starting eleven is confirmed yet.
Monza have lost four of their last five regardless of the goals they're creating, which means their defence could just as easily concede late and open the game up further, or shut down entirely once behind. Torino's own attack has managed only 3-4 shots on target a game in their last three, so if their finishing stays blunt in a tighter game, this can miss even if the underlying pattern says otherwise.
Verdict
Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 implies a 49.5% chance. Seven of the last ten Serie A games played by these two sides - three of Torino's last five, four of Monza's - have finished with three or more goals, a 70% rate that comfortably clears the market's implied probability, even allowing for Torino's modest shot-on-target numbers in attack. Stake: 1 unit.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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