Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth weighs up two La Liga sides who have both been leaking goals before the Santiago Bernabéu kick-off.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two leaky defences at the Bernabéu
Real Madrid have won five of seven league games, but the two defeats – 1-0 at Real Betis and 2-1 away at Atlético Madrid – both came with Real Madrid conceding, and that is part of a wider pattern: six of their seven league games this season have seen the opposition score at least once.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have scored in six of their own seven league outings. Their only blank came away at Alavés; everywhere else, including matches they lost, they have found the net at least once. They have also conceded in all seven of their league games, which tells you plenty about how this one is likely to go at the other end too.
Put the two trends together: a home side that leaks in most games, and an away side that scores in most games. The market prices both teams to score at 1.57, an implied 64% chance. Looking at how often each side has done their half of the job individually this season, the true number looks closer to the mid-70s – not a huge gap, but enough to make this worth backing rather than passing.
The pick: both teams to score, at 1.57.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Real Madrid games conceding (7 games)6 of 7
- Villarreal games scoring (7 games)6 of 7
- Real Madrid La Liga record5W-0D-2L, 15 pts
- Villarreal La Liga record2W-2D-3L, 8 pts
- Villarreal games conceding (7 games)7 of 7
Team news
No confirmed team news for either side yet this far from kick-off. Real Madrid's back line has not looked settled through their two recent defeats; worth checking again once the line-ups land.
Real Madrid are at home and heavily favoured outright (1.30 to win), and a one-sided scoreline where they win comfortably without Villarreal getting a sniff is the obvious way this loses. Villarreal's only blank of the season came away from home, for what that is worth, but it did happen.
Verdict
Both teams to score at 1.57 implies a 63.7% chance. Real Madrid have conceded in 6 of 7 league games and Villarreal have scored in 6 of 7 – on those individual rates the majority of meetings like this go both-to-score. 0.75 units, modest edge rather than a standout price.
- ESPN – Real Madrid results and schedule – La Liga results, goals scored/conceded
- ESPN – Villarreal results and schedule – La Liga results, goals scored/conceded
- ESPN – La Liga standings – league table, points, record
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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