Venezia vs Internazionale Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth examines the gap between the Serie A table's top and bottom sides, and what their recent matches suggest for the goals market.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Inter's scoring run against Serie A's bottom side
Internazionale arrive at the bottom of the table top of it. Seven games into the season they lead Serie A on 19 points, while Venezia prop up the division on 3 points and a goal difference of -10. On paper this is as lopsided as Serie A gets this weekend, and the goals market reflects the gap between how these two sides have been playing.
Every one of Inter's last five league games has produced three goals or more: 3-1 at Bologna, 3-0 at home to Parma, 2-2 at Roma, 5-3 at home to Udinese and 3-2 at home to Napoli. That is sixteen goals scored and eight conceded in five matches - a side that is both scoring freely and leaking a bit at the back, which tends to mean open matches rather than tight ones.
Venezia's own games have been feast or famine. They have conceded twelve goals in their last five league matches - four at home to Fiorentina, three away at Frosinone, two away at Atalanta - with the exception being a surprise 1-0 win at home to Napoli. Three of their last five matches have still finished with three goals or more.
Blending Inter's scoring and conceding rates with Venezia's over the same run points to a match total in the region of four goals, comfortably clear of the bookmaker's 3.5 line. We have not seen confirmed starting line-ups this far out, and Inter could in theory manage the game once ahead against a side with nothing to lose, but neither club has a midweek fixture to navigate before this one, which cuts down the rotation risk. Tom's pick: over 3.5 goals.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Inter league games with 3+ total goals (last 5)5 of 5
- Inter goals scored (last 5 league games)16 (3.2/game)
- Inter goals conceded (last 5 league games)8 (1.6/game)
- Venezia goals conceded (last 5 league games)12 (2.4/game)
- Venezia goal difference this season-10, 20th of 20
- Inter position / points1st · 19 pts (7 games)
Team news
No team news or lineups are confirmed this far from kick-off. Nothing has emerged pointing to a defensive or attacking absence for either side; we will not pretend otherwise.
<p>Inter have won games out of sight before and can ease off in the second half once a result is safe, which would work against the total. Venezia's one clean sheet in the sample (the Napoli game) shows they are capable of putting up a defensive display when they need to.</p>
Verdict
At 1.84, the market prices over 3.5 goals as a 54% chance. Our blended scoring/conceding numbers put the match closer to four goals, enough of a gap to make this worth a bet at Tom's standard stake.
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
More predictions
AS Roma vs Cagliari
Sassuolo vs Lazio
